Wild Card Picks

The Playoffs are finally upon us, and we have a fantastic weekend of football set in store. While we've been picking games against the spread all year, it's time to bring back a straight up picks column for the playoff. For the playoffs, we're going to be picking games both straight up and against the spread with the spread counting towards the season total. Without further ado, here are the Wild Card Picks.

Raiders(+5.5) @ Bengals (Winner):

This is a hard game to get a read on because there is so much that is unknown about both of these teams. But before I get to my pick I want to issue a warning: We all need to mentally prepare ourselves for the fact that one of these teams could make the AFC Championship game. I do not say this with the belief that either of these two teams are good or have come close to deserving of making an AFC title game, but there comes a point where we have to acknowledge the reality of how the seeding is playing out. The AFC is weird this year because the three best teams in my opinion are the Chiefs (2 seed), the Bills (3 seed) and the Patriots (6 seed). This means that one of the Bills and Patriots will knock each other out in the first round, and there is a very good chance that the Bills and Chiefs wind up facing off in the second round. This would mean that by definition only one of those three teams could reach the conference title game, meaning that one of the Raiders, Bengals, or Titans would have to make it. And while I would probably take a healthy Titans over both of these teams, they are still the most beatable one seed perhaps in the history of football. So while part of the reason I have a hard time getting a read on this game is that I do not think either of these teams are very good, this may be the most important non-draft pick-related game in football history between two teams in the bottom half of Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.

These are two teams that have had a lot of things break their way over the course of the season. The Raiders are 4-0 in overtime games, winning the coin toss in three of them, and have gotten to face Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, and Nick Mullens over the course of the season. They also have the fourth-worst point differential of any playoff team in NFL history. The Bengals have a very spotty resume, with blowout losses to the Chargers and Browns, a loss to the Jets, as well as a win against the Jaguars that came down to the last play. In their game against the Ravens that essentially won them the division, they got to go up against a team playing their third-string Quarterback and missing their top eight Cornerbacks. The Raiders are second in yardage gained from opponent penalties, while the Bengals are eighth. The Bengals particularly benefited from opponent penalties in their win against the Chiefs, when they had four separate failed third/fourth down extended by penalties, with the results of the ensuing drives yielding 20 of their 34 points. Both the Raiders and Bengals are good teams that have had a lot go their way, and the hardest thing in evaluating them is separating their actual strengths from the areas in which they have been extremely fortunate.

With all of that being said, I do believe that the Bengals are better than the Raiders, simply because of their talent. The thing with the Bengals is they don’t really do anything special schematically, their entire strategy is just hoping their guys are better than your guys, and oftentimes that can be true. The only path I see the Raiders winning this game comes from their front four. The pass rush is the one area where they will have a definitive advantage, as getting after the Quarterback is their biggest strength, while the Bengals have a bad offensive line and a Quarterback in Joe Burrow who has a tendency for taking unnecessary sacks. That being said, I still trust the Bengals' blue-chippers to make enough plays to win, but the variance involved in these two teams makes it hard for me to take them -5.5. In my mind, there are three ways I see this game going, each of which has a similar likelihood:

1. Raiders close win

2. Bengals close win

3. Bengals blowout

In a game for which I don’t have a great handle, I’m just gonna go with the picks that satisfy two of the three requirements.

Patriots (+4.5) @ Bills (winner):

Full disclosure: While I am presenting these games in chronological order, this is the late game that I am breaking down- mainly because I wanted to give myself more time. I was hoping to have some moment, some magical Jake Peralta-style epiphany that would solve the mystery that is the 0-degree Pats Bills Part III. But it never came, and I have Shabbat dinner coming up, so I’m going to have to write something. Normally the best rule of thumb for projecting a football game is to try to avoid predicting external factors and simply go with how you would line the two teams up in your brain, and that will more often than not put you in a position to succeed. The problem is that the external factor that will decide this game is known by everybody, so we have no choice to overthink.

If you don’t know already, it is going to be really cold in Buffalo on Saturday night- like zero-degree wind chill cold. While normally you just factor typical coldness in terms of which team tends to succeed more often in cold weather, this is a whole different animal. No matter where you are from, no one can be prepared to play a game like this. And even with that, these are two teams from the northeast that actually struggle in cold weather. Josh Allen has been surprisingly bad in cold games, posting just a 50% completion percentage and a 6/7 TD-INT ratio in games below freezing. While those games were all windier than this game, which weirdly projects to be the least windy Bills home game all year, Allen is one Quarterback who seems impervious to the wind. His otherworldly arm strength allows him to cut throws through the air, and you don’t see many of his throws getting caught up in the wind. Rather the struggles seem to stem from the fact that according to Allen, he loses circulation to his feet and can no longer feel them during cold-weather games, something which is much more alarming. Josh Allen is a naturally inaccurate passer who has fixed that through one of the biggest mechanical overhauls we have ever seen but in order to maintain that he needs to pay more attention to his wide throwing base than most Quarterbacks in order to avoid reverting into bad habits. If Josh Allen can’t feel his feet, that means they can wander all over the place, and since he isn’t someone who naturally has good mechanics he can sometimes revert to 2018-2019 Josh Allen in normal cold- which is not something you want to do against Bill Belichick, especially in zero degree weather. What’s more, Josh Allen tends to throw rocket balls in order to minimize the effect this weather had on his passing, but those throws can be really hard to catch. Stefon Diggs dropped a touchdown in the snow a couple of weeks ago, which he said was due to the throw simply coming in too hot and the ball feeling like a rock. That’s not necessarily anyone’s fault, it is just the reality of playing these types of games. While I would normally advise against it, I am going to fully read into these reasons for why the Bills have struggled in this weather, and expect their offense to once again struggle on Saturday.

While this weather may hurt the Bills, it doesn’t do much more for the Patriots' offense either. Mac Jones admitted earlier this year that he had never played in cold weather in his life, and Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels certainly have not been interested in taking off Mac’s kid gloves. Considering the Patriots do not have that dynamic of an offense to start with, I shouldn’t necessarily expect many fireworks in near sub-zero temperatures. That being said, this weather ultimately benefits the Patriots more than the Bills, simply because of the way it hurts Buffalo’s offense. The Week 16 clash in New England proved that when Buffalo is right the Pats simply cannot keep up offensively. In normal conditions, the Patriots would have to try to dictate the terms of the game as a rugged, physical, low-scoring game, but they may not have to do that now because that is how this game is inevitably going to have to be played. On top of that, we must factor in the coaching. It’s not a slight to Sean McDermott to say that this is the exact situation where Bill Belichick thrives. Part of Belichick’s genius comes not only from x’s and o’s but from taking an external factor and turning it into a psychological advantage. Don’t believe me? It happened just six weeks ago! While the Bills could have won that game, Belichick was able to turn the Patriots game plan into a psychological advantage against Buffalo. While the Bills have a rigid defense, the fact that the Patriots went up early playing the way they did made the Bills seem soft, and both teams felt that throughout the game. While I’m not saying the Patriots will only run the ball three times, Belichick is going to come up with some way to make his team believe that they have the upper hand.

In many ways, this game is the inverse of the Raiders-Bengals game. That game confuses me because I have no idea how it will play out, and I am not sure which outcome out of many options to choose. I have a very good idea of how this game plays out, but I am not sure what the specific outcome will be. I expect this game to be low-scoring and close, but that doesn’t automatically mean that the Patriots will win. The Bills are 0-5 in one-score games, while the Patriots have consistently struggled to get a stop to win the game when necessary. With all of that being said it simply comes down to this: I am taking the four and a half because, with everything that is going on, I believe that the weather and Bill Belichick will allow the Patriots to keep it close against a superior team. While the randomness of close games means the Pats could easily win, this game is really a coin flip in my mind so I will simply pick the team and the Quarterback that I trust more to make a play when necessary. And that is the Bills.

Buccaneers (-8.5, winner) vs Eagles:

This game is going to be really easy to overthink, so I am doing my best to keep it simple, although external factors are making it very hard. The truth is that the only way for the Eagles to win this game is to watch the tape of Super Bowl 25 and copy the game plan employed by Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick to stop the Bills’ high-powered K-Gun offense, which was to keep that offense off the field. While it may not have been quite as big of a mismatch as this, the Giants truly had no business hanging with that Buffalo team. But they ran the ball, methodically moved the chains, limited each team to around ten possessions, and held the ball for over 40 minutes of game time en route to a 20-19 lead. That lead only held once Scott Norwood missed a last-second 47-yard field goal for Buffalo- although Bills coach Marv Levy has gotten off WAY too easy for choosing to play conservatively and allowing the clock to run down without trying to move the ball any further and allowing the game to rest on the foot of a kicker who for his career was 1-5 from 40+ yards on grass- but I digress. In order for the Eagles to win, they will need to employ a similar game plan, one which they are equipped to execute. They have a dominant run game, headlined by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. And while the Buccaneers have the roster for a dominant run defense, a little secret is that the vaunted run-stopping crew that forced the Cowboys to throw the ball 58 times in Week 1 has been long gone. Since Week Five their defense is just 17th in rushing Expected Points Added Per Play, as they have racked up the injuries on that side of the ball. And while Vita Vea is still a monster, Tampa may be without Lavonte David, and if they do have he presumes to be extremely hobbled. If Philadelphia can execute that very specific game plan, they can give themselves a chance.

One factor which might make it easier for the Eagles to shorten the game is the weather. As of now, it projects to be extremely windy in Tampa, with gusts reaching well upward of 30 MPH, as while previous prognostications of an in-game rainstorm have largely cleared, it still projects to thunderstorm throughout the morning and possibly up until game time, which leaves the possibility for a wet and soft field which slows players down. If this weather holds, both the wind and playing surface could not only help the Eagles running game, but it could slow down Tampa’s receivers and make it harder for Brady to push it down the field.

With all of that being said, I am still taking Tampa. While the scenario I mentioned above is plausible, actually predicting it to lead to an Eagles victory is a classic example of the overthinking that I warned against. For starters, in order for that game plan to work in its highest form the running team actually has to avoid being too effective. In that Super Bowl, the Giants averaged 4.4 yards per carry on 39 attempts, enough to keep the chains moving but not enough to actually initiate any type of quick score as they had to rely on some timely third-down conversions. If they had been too effective running the football, they could have scored too quickly, and now the other team would have had ample time to turn the game into a high-tempo affair. Essentially, you need to be effective but not too effective on early downs to put you in favorable third-down spots, convert the third downs, and then hope to play well defensively. It sounds great in theory, but holding the ball for over 40 minutes is REALLY hard in the NFL. If the Eagles execute this game plan perfectly they will likely find themselves in a close game, something which doesn’t give me nearly enough confidence to actually pick them.

Beyond the difficulty of actually executing Philly’s optimal strategy, there comes a point where they are playing against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs. The Buccaneers are much better and have consistently covered as big favorites at home. The narrative for how the Eagles win the game is fun- but let’s not overthink it. I’m taking the Bucs.

Cowboys (-3, winner) vs 49ers:

This is easily the game of the weekend, not only because of the stature of the two teams involved (generations of football fans have grown up on 49ers-Cowboys playoff games) but because both of these teams can legitimately make and win the Super Bowl. There is so much unknown in Tampa, but if it turns out they simply wind up being a shell of themselves due to injuries, these become the second and third best teams in the NFC in my opinion. The 49ers are finally rewarding my preseason prognostication of them being the best team in the NFC West, a distinction which I believe they hold despite finishing third, while the Cowboys have been playing a lot better than people give them credit for, as I wrote a couple of weeks ago. What’s more, while both teams would obviously be underdogs going into Lambeau, these might actually be the worst two matchups for the Packers.

Beyond the pure stakes, what’s fascinating about this game is the way these two teams match up with each other, as this is a game that should favor both offenses. While the Cowboys have had one of the best defenses in football this year (number two in DVOA), it is largely reliant on being able to stop the pass, more specifically through their pass rush, and in a league that is dominated by the pass, being able to stop passing games is the most valuable thing you can do as a defense. However, the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan are a team that tends to zig when everyone else zags, and have an offense that is perfectly designed to exploit Dallas’ weaknesses defensively. Dallas had a mediocre run defense that finished middle of the pack in the league this year and hasn’t come close to being tested by a top-tier running game such as San Francisco’s. The question, of course, is how that running game manifests itself. Dallas’ weakness is definitely up the middle which means that they could theoretically have some answers for Deebo Samuel on the edges, but I have a hard time seeing them taking Deebo out of the game. What’s more, the 49ers' passing game exploits the areas where the Cowboys struggle. The Cowboys have struggled covering two-way tight ends who tend to line up on the line of scrimmage all year, and simply don’t have the personnel to match up with a George Kittle type. The areas where they are really effective defending the pass are on the outside but the 49ers generally like to work the middle of the field, which is an area in which the Cowboys struggle. As simple as it sounds, the most important thing for the Cowboys on that side of the ball is going to be getting after Jimmy G. The Cowboys are a team that has relied above all else on their three-headed pass-rushing monster of Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory to get in the backfield and wreak havoc, something which can be hard to do against a 49ers passing offense that likes gets rid of the ball quickly. That being said, we do know that Garoppolo is very flappable, and if you make him nervous he can make some mistakes. And if he does, the Cowboys are going to have to take advantage of them.

On the other side of the ball, the question is less about scheme and more about personnel. Simply put, the Cowboys' receivers are A LOT better than the 49ers' corners. While Defensive Coordinator Demeco Ryans has spent much of the year managing to make chicken salad out of chicken shit when it comes to a group that includes the likes of Emmanuel Mosley and Josh Norman, I have a hard time believing that those guys will be able to keep up with the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and even Cedrick Wilson. In order for the 49ers to stop Dallas’ passing attack from having a field day, they will need to go back to their ole reliable- getting pressure from their front four. While it may not quite stack up to the vaunted group from 2019, the 49ers still have a defensive line that finished fifth in pass rush win rate and sixth in sacks. As long as the likes of Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead are suiting up, they are going to make lives very difficult for opposing offensive lines. What’s hard to figure out is just how good that Cowboys offensive line actually is. While they finished middle of the pack in most blocking metrics over the course of the year, this is the first time all year that they will be truly healthy up front. If the Cowboys can give Dak enough time to get the ball out to his receivers in space, things could get very difficult. My one worry is that Dallas spends too much time trying to establish the run. The Cowboys will not be more effective than the Niners in their rushing attack, so they should come out of the gate airing it out.

With all of that being said, my pick is ultimately a slight lean towards the Cowboys. In a game where both teams have mismatch advantages to exploit, I believe the biggest mismatch is between the Cowboys' receivers and the 49ers' corners. What’s more, in a game that I believe will be close, I simply trust Dak more than Jimmy G to make a play to win the game. Of course, as one must stipulate every week with the Cowboys, I have to acknowledge that looming over everything will be a Mike McCarthy-sized shadow- but it’s a shadow from which I believe Dak and Co. will be able to escape.

Chiefs (-12.5, winner) vs Steelers:

There’s not much more to say here other than that I believe the Chiefs are much better than the Steelers. And before you accuse me of having Ravens bitterness, I want to state for the record that if I think the Steelers are good I will say it, and there have been times in my life where I genuinely believed that they were going to win the Super Bowl. I just do not think this version of the Steelers is good at all. They made the playoffs riding a wave of everything breaking in their favor, a stretch that included the Tony Corrente Monday Night officiating debacle against the Bears, a Quarterback who somehow finished with the seventh-lowest interception percentage despite having the most turnover worthy plays by a significant margin, and a schedule that timed out for them to face Tyler Huntley, D’onta Foreman, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Geno Smith, while the Colts had to face Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown twice and Russell Wilson. They are 24th in DVOA and 26th in Weighted DVOA and have the sixth-worst point-differential of any playoff team in NFL history. The Steelers should not be a playoff team- and yet here they are, so we must break down their matchup.

The Steelers will not beat the Chiefs. That is something of which I am supremely confident. The question is whether the Chiefs beat themselves. The Chiefs are a team that has largely missed out on the number one seed due to self-inflicted wounds rather than opponent success. The inverse of the Bengals gaining all that yardage from opponents' penalties in their Week 16 matchup is the Chiefs essentially throwing away the one seed due to pure sloppiness, something which can’t be ignored. On top of that, the Chiefs dug themselves into a massive hole earlier in the year essentially by dropping balls for deflected interceptions and fumbling the ball in crucial moments. In order for the Steelers to win, they will need to rely on yet another opponent self-implosion, something which is not out of the realm of possibility. That being said, I still expect the Chiefs to win big. The Chiefs won 36-10 when these teams faced off three weeks ago and it wasn’t even that close, and there is no reason to expect that it should be different this time. There will be a time in the playoffs where the Chiefs will likely be forced to try to go and win a playoff game in spite of themselves. I do not believe that it will be this week.

Cardinals (+4, winner) @ Rams:

I know this may shock some people, but I believe that the Cardinals will beat the Rams. I wrote two weeks ago about how I was out on the Rams, and nothing that they did to finish off the season made me any more of a believer, after barely squeaking out a win against the depleted, Tyler Huntley-led Ravens before collapsing against the 49ers with the division on the line. Now, the reason that collapse did not cost them the division was that the Cardinals themselves lost to Seattle last weekend, but they were playing a Seattle team that was finally healthy and admittedly treating that game as their Super Bowl. That being said, I do not feel great about either team coming into this game, even though the Cardinals are getting JJ Watt back which should be a massive boost to this defense.

The biggest problem with this game is the variance in possible results. And yet while I still wholeheartedly believe that the Rams will lose a playoff game because of Stafford, it also must be acknowledged that they could win a playoff game because of Stafford. I believe that Kyler Murray is better than Stafford, but he also has a tendency to throw up a stinker or two every now and then, and there is a lot of uncertainty in whether the Cardinals offensive line will show up any given week. While the Rams have the coaching advantage, both Sean McVay and Kliff Kingsbury struggle mightily with game management, meaning it is hard to predict who would make the game-losing decision in a tight spot.

In an article in which I am supposed to be giving answers, this game simply leaves me with questions. Which Matthew Stafford are we gonna get- is it the guy who completed 24 straight passes over the course of two games, or the guy who turned the ball over six times over six quarters? How much does Cam Akers coming back change the calculus for the Rams’ running game? How healthy is JJ Watt? Are we gonna get a patented coverage bust or aborted snap from the Cardinals? How much should we read into Arizona's 8-1 road record? What does a home LA playoff crowd look like anyway? And if we get the bad version of Matthew Stafford, how difficult will it be for Peyton to avoid directly trashing him on the Manningcast?

With these many questions, I see a game in which either team could blow the other out or win close. In a game with this much uncertainty, I am simply going to take the points and the Quarterback that I trust the most. There really is nothing more to it.