Honestly, what type of introduction do you need? It’s the Super Bowl.
Top Subplots
The myth of the futuristic Bengals and all-in Rams
A common phrase you may have heard throughout this season is that the Rams are “all-in,” on winning specifically this season. While they have given up assets for veterans, that could not be farther from the truth. Being “all-in” means using assets and contracts to compete for one individual season, with the knowledge that you will not be able to retain this roster in the future. An example would be the 2020 Saints. They knew Drew Brees was likely retiring and they were going to lose a lot of free agents because of their cap situation, so they made multiple moves that had questionable value in a vacuum but were aimed at keeping the roster together for one year. This is because they felt that their best chance at winning a Super Bowl in the foreseeable future was in 2020, so they prioritized that year above all else. That is not the case with the Rams. While they don’t have any first-round picks until 2024, they haven’t had any since 2017. Does that mean they were “all-in” in the three previous times they made the playoffs? What about in 2018, when they made the Super Bowl? That team also had many veterans, but they were able to replace them. The likes Marcus Peters, Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, and Dante Fowler were replaced by Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller, Cam Akers, Odell, Leonard Floyd, and Matthew Stafford. What’s more, the Rams actually have a better ability this time to retain much of their core. They have Matthew Stafford signed through next year, Cooper Kupp signed through 2023, Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald signed through 2024, Robert Woods signed through 2025, and Jalen Ramsey signed through 2026. The only two major stars they do not have locked up are Von Miller and Odell, but they also were not there for the first eight games this year. While the Rams probably do not make this Super Bowl without either of those guys, I have a hard time seeing how it is impossible for the group that started off 7-1 to ever compete for the Super Bowl again. Too often we mistake the ability to compete for the future with youth. Youth gives you a more indefinite time period, as there is not a specific timetable for competition. The Rams have probably a three or four-year window to compete, but the idea that after this year they won’t be able to do so is simply a fallacy.
As for the Bengals, they are as likely as any team to regress. They will go from winning their division by winning ten games with one of the easiest schedules in football, and remaining largely healthy while the Ravens and Browns were decimated by injuries. The schedule situation will reverse next year, and the Ravens and Brown should figure to have better injury luck next year. And while the Bengals have been good in the playoffs, it is undeniable that they have received a lot of luck in getting to the Super Bowl. For starters, they have had an absurdly easy schedule. Instead of going up against the usual gauntlet of a tough five-seed and then the best team in the conference, the Bengals started off by playing the team with the fourth-worst point differential of any playoff team in NFL history, before playing the team with the worst ever DVOA for a number one or two seed. They played both of those teams essentially equally before making one more play and benefiting from some questionable opponent coaching decisions in each game. Even the Chiefs game was more of a Chiefs choke than a great Bengals win, although the Bengals did play very well.
With all of those factors considered, the road to a Super Bowl return should simply be harder for the Bengals. Not only are they more likely to regress, but they also play in a gauntlet of a conference. I would definitively say that the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens are all better set up for next year, and I might even put the Chargers and Patriots on that list as well. The Rams are the only team in the NFC right now where I both have certainty over who the Quarterback and Coach will be, while having in both. Right now, the Rams are in a position to win a Lombardi. The Bengals are in a position to steal it. Because they are in the Super Bowl, this is obviously both teams’ best chance to win one for the foreseeable future. But the Rams will have multiple real shots to get back. This is the shot for the Bengals.
Whitworth and Weddle
Much was made this year about Tom Brady’s incredible dominance at age 44, and rightfully so. But the Rams have two players who have been putting on impressive old-man acts themselves. Andrew Whitworth is one of the most beloved players in the game, as seen in his recent stirring acceptance speech for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award, but has also been putting up an incredible season. He is the first 40-year-old in NFL history to start at Left Tackle and has been one of the best in the game this year at that. You could argue that considering the rigors of the position, from a purely physical standpoint that is a more impressive feat than what Brady has done. And Weddle has been retired for two years, before being called off the couch by the Rams right before the playoffs. But rather than being a nice depth piece there mainly to be a steadying voice, he has stepped right into the fold and made an impact. Weddle was the Rams’ leading tackler in the Conference Championship Game and will be wearing the green dot on Sunday as the Rams defensive on-field signal-caller. This will be Weddle’s last game, and that may very well be the case for Whitworth as well. In a game full of youngsters, watch out for these two old guys trying to finally win a ring. Oh, and it is also an Andrew Whitworth revenge game.
The end of Al and Cris?
My generation grew up being told in the old Sunday Football intro that “Al and Cris are the best in TV,” (they shamefully took out this line when Carrie Underwood replaced Faith Hill) and they were right. No broadcast pair has defined this generation of football more than those two, who have been there for everything from the Malcolm Butler pick to the Blair Walsh miss to the Odell three-finger catch to the butt-fumble. Their perfect chemistry, Cris’ slides, Al’s covert gambling references, and their pure excitement have made them the best booth of the past 20 years, and probably the second-best ever behind Madden and Summerall. However, this could be the last game they do together. Michaels’ contract ends with NBC runs out after this year, and neither side has committed to another deal as Amazon attempts to poach him for their Thursday broadcasts next year. While I hope Al comes back, this might be the end. If that is the case let’s enjoy one last game with the two together, and fondly bid farewell to the voices of my childhood.
Team with more “I’m really happy for him” guys- Rams
While the Bengals' young guys can be fun to root for, the Rams are full of beloved guys who have been around the game for a long time that finally have a chance to win a ring after finding a home in LA. As previously mentioned, a ring would be the perfect way to cap off incredible careers for Weddle and Whitworth. Aaron Donald has a chance to finally get his ring and supplant himself as one of the two greatest defensive players of all time after years of frustration. Odell has been a model citizen in LA, being everything you want in a teammate after the way things ended with the Browns. Von Miller has a chance to bounce back from a couple of injury-filled years, and grab another ring. And of course, few football players are more fun to root for than Matthew Stafford. Even Sean McVay, while only having recently turned 36, is tied for the sixth-longest tenured Head Coach in football, and a Super Bowl in his first year with Jared Goof would be an awesome accomplishment coming off years of frustration being tethered to Jared Goff. This Rams team is full of incredible stories of guys who finally found a home in LA- and winning a ring would be a great highlight to all of their careers.
The bigger “I’m really happy for them” fanbase- Bengals
This one is not close. The Rams have only been back in LA for a few years, and have had their stadium consistently raided by opposing fans. If the Rams were to win the Super Bowl, they would be like the twelfth biggest story in LA come Monday morning. The Bengals have had one of the longest-suffering fan bases in football, who finally get to root for a genuinely fun team. While Cincy has often been known for having a half-empty stadium, what their fan base generally lacks for in size it makes up for in passion. Those that have remained with the team are some of the most loyal fans in football, and a Super Bowl would be an incredible validation of their fandom. What’s more, the city has embraced this team in a way that it never has with any previous Bengals group because of how fun this group of guys is. As much as I personally dislike Bengals fans due to their presence in the AFC North, it is undeniable that this is a long-suffering group that has been through it all.
Fanbase that we’ll be happy for because of how sad we are for them- Lions
A fanbase of a team not in the game will often a team to root for in the Super Bowl because they have a beloved ex-player who they hope succeeds. That is what I am doing with the Rams and Weddle, one of my all-time favorite Ravens. What is happening with the Lions fans and Matthew Stafford is different. Stafford is one of the most beloved Lions in team history, and their fans have tethered their 2021 football happiness to Stafford’s Super Bowl journey. Don’t believe me? Look at this video of a Lions fan reacting to Stafford’s game-winning throw to Cooper Kupp against Tampa. Or read this article about the “Detroit Rams” shirts that Lions fans have been buying en masse. This is a whole different level of rooting for the athlete who left your team. Lions fans are not rooting for Stafford like this in order to have a stake in the Super Bowl- they are doing it because they are so starved for any semblance of football joy, and will embrace any opportunity they can get. While it obviously isn’t the same as Bengals fans or if the Lions were to be in the Super Bowl, this nevertheless is arguably a bigger game for the city of Detroit than it is for Los Angeles. If the Rams were to win this game that would be the happiest ever football moment for basically every Lions fan under the age of 30. So while I would be happy for them, I would also be sorry that was the case.
Karma Advantage- Rams
This one is pretty simple. The city of Cincinnati has already announced that their public schools will be closed Monday in order to celebrate a Bengals win. That is as big of a mistake as they come. You have to make contingency plans in case the team wins, but you don’t publicly announce them lest you risk upsetting the Karma Gods and the opposition. For further proof, watch this Bill Belichick speech the night before the Patriots beat the Eagles in Super Bowl 39. I am about to do a full football breakdown of the game, but with everything I am going to say just remember what the Cincinnati School Board has done to their team.
Game Preview
Why the Bengals Can Win
It may sound simple, but the way for the Bengals to win is to play well and hope that the Rams play worse. While that seems obvious, what I mean by that is that I don’t think the Bengals can outplay the Rams- if the Rams are on their game, the Bengals will not outplay them. The Bengals have not gotten to the Super Bowl by being great- they have gotten here by being consistently good, with their opponents playing worse than them. This EPA scatterplot courtesy of Ben Baldwin of PFF shows that over the course of the playoff the Bengals have been a decent team- they have only scored five touchdowns in 32 playoff drives- but in their individual games, their opponents have played worse (also look away Bills fans).
There is something to be said for the Bengals' consistent competence. We’ve seen teams fold under the pressure of the playoffs more than enough times over the years to know that being steady is a skill in itself. Teams with a great Quarterback usually take on the personality of that guy, and that has certainly been the case with the Bengals and Joe Burrow. He is as even-keeled as they come, and while it sounds cliche he really is unflappable, and that has rubbed off on the rest of the team. Even when things are going bad the Bengals don’t freak out, and they simply keep doing their thing- and that is something they should be applauded for. They have great chemistry, and while they are a young team I do not believe the moment will be too big for them, which is something that we do have to consider when looking at the range of possibilities for how the game will go. The Rams have certainly been the better team throughout the playoffs, but their second-half against Tampa is also worse than anything Cincy has done, meaning they have more possible outcomes. While I do not think the Bengals will outplay the Rams in a well-played game, I also do not think they will sink below them if the game is played poorly.
In order for the Bengals to win, they will have to follow the same script they have all year and all playoffs. They aren’t an elite defense, but like the rest of the team they have been consistently good, and coordinator Lou Anarumo deserves credit for what he’s gotten out of them. Offensively, While one can dream about Zac Taylor opening up the offense on first down, he simply seems addicted to putting the Bengals in second and eight situations. And while we can hope that he might move out of empty to help out a horrible offensive line and a Quarterback who takes way more sacks than he should, he seems oblivious to the option of using a tight end or running back to help block, such as when he only used more than five blockers on 46 dropbacks when Burrow got sacked nine times against the Titans. So it will be the same thing offensively as usual- hope Burrow and his receivers bail the coaches out and simply use their elite talent to make plays. What will be interesting is how the distribution of targets winds up looking during this game. Jalen Ramsey could shadow Ja’marr Chase, but the Bengals have been more than willing to feed Tee Higgins. And the Rams struggle covering against the middle of the field, which should give Tyler Boyd some opportunities on some hot reads. But all of these come down to individual one-on-one matchups. The Bengals offensive talent is going to be facing elite talent across the field, and will not be helped out by their coaches. They are just going to have to make incredible individual plays.
If the Bengals do all of this, they will possibly be in a position to win the game. Like I said earlier, I am more confident of the performance I am getting in the Bengals than the Rams because the Rams could sink below the Bengals. If the Bengals do their normal thing, they will then need the Rams to follow in the footsteps of Mahomes throwing behind the end zone at the end of the first half or Derek Carr spiking the ball and making mistakes that benefit the Bengals- and it wouldn’t hurt to get some more lucky bounces as well. When we make predictions, we do it under the assumption that the team that we think is better will perform better over the course of a game or season, but that will inherently not always be the case. The Bengals are far from the best team in football, but the goal is not to be the best team, it is to be the Super Bowl Champion. With a steady performance and a little luck, they could very well find themselves standing on that podium.
Why the Rams Can Win
The Rams can beat the Bengals because they are better. I do not only mean by this that they have a higher ceiling, but that there are more ways that I can see them winning this game. The biggest matchup advantage comes from their pass rush. This point has been beaten to death throughout Super Bowl week, but there is a reason for that. The Rams have the best defensive line in football and are going up against one of the worst offensive lines in football. I mentioned in the Bengals section how much Zac Taylor loves going to empty backfields. Well the Rams defense feasts against empty backfields, and understandably so. Asking an offensive line to block Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd without any extra help is a herculean task, one way too big for this putrid Bengals offensive line. While the Rams can be susceptible to big plays, something the Bengals will probably exploit once or twice, I simply have a hard time seeing Cincy being able to consistently move the ball on this Rams D.
Offensively, the equation becomes really interesting for the Rams. The Rams cannot run the ball- they have averaged only 2.9 yards per carry during the playoffs- and McVay has realized that, throwing it around two-thirds of the time during the conference championship game. Matthew Stafford should also have time, as the performance of the Bengals pass rush has been slightly overstated during the postseason. While they have had some timely sacks, many of those were coverage sacks, and they actually have a lower pass-rush win rate in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. They can’t blitz Stafford considering Stafford has the best QBR in football against the blitz and Cooper Kupp averages 1.5 yards per route more than anyone else in football when the opponent blitzes. I expect the Bengals to go back to their looks employed against the Chiefs where they rushed three and dropped eight, although again I think the effects of that have been overstated. Yes, they ran that look 45% of the time while shutting down the Chiefs in the second half, but that was only a 10% increase over the first half when the Chiefs looked like the greatest offense of all time. Is that 10% difference- equivalent to maybe 3-5 plays- responsible for that drastic difference we saw? Or did Mahomes inexplicably play the worst half of his playoff career at the worst time? My guess is the latter, and while it is possible that Matthew Stafford stinks up the joint, I like the Rams' chances of succeeding against these looks, consider Sean McVay has now had two weeks to figure out how to exploit them, and Cooper Kupp is one of the best guys in football at finding holes in the zones.
Which Narrative do I believe?
Beyond making a pick, it is always important with the Super Bowl to play out what type of game you think it will be. If you are able to script a certain narrative for the game in your mind, you will be able to not only hit on your game pick but also on a number of props. In my mind, I see the Rams airing it out to great success. As mentioned previously I am skeptical of the Bengals’ pass defense, and they would need the best game of Mike Hilton, Chidobe Awuzie, and Eli Apple’s careers to stop Kupp and Beckham. If the Rams start off by airing the ball out, they should be able to get out to a lead and gain control of the game. The Bengals should be able to hang around however by hitting a couple of big hitters and stopping the Rams from running. Stafford may even throw a pick. Ultimately though, I have a hard time seeing them catching up. The Rams will ride their pass-rush and pass-offense to a somewhat close Super Bowl win. Take Cam Akers unders, and Cooper Kupp overs (alternate line of over 80 receiving yards and Rams to win is -104 at FanDuel). Take the overs for the Rams pass rush as well, as they should be able to get after Burrow. It’s harder to pinpoint the picks for the Bengals because they have so many different options at receiver that it is hard to pinpoint who their one receiver will be, although I do kind of like Tee Higgins’ over. At the end of the day I believe more in the case I made for the Rams than the one I made for the Bengals- and Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will ride their newly found marriage to their first Super Bowl win.
The Pick: Rams (-4) over Bengals 31-23
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