NFL Week 2 Picks

No preamble this week, we’re just getting right into it. Week 1 was rough, it’s time to bounce back. Here are the Week 2 picks (lines as of Thursday afternoon).

Last Weeks Record: 7-11 (2-0 locks)

Season Record: 7-11

Giants (+3.5) @ Washington: This should be an interesting game, but one on which I don't have a great feel. The Giants looked flat in Week 1, and while the Football Team kept it close against the Chargers, that very well could have been a two-score game. While this figures to be a defensive matchup, Washington has traditionally been the team against which Daniel Jones has been the strongest, and while we all act as if Taylor Heinicke is nothing more than a backup, we’ve never actually seen him play poorly for the WFT. In a game that I don’t love, I’m just going to go ahead and take the points.

Bears (-2.5) vs Bengals: This line seems to be a little bit of an overreaction to Week 1. Yes the Bears were (and are) horrible, but no one was beating the Rams in Week 1. And while the Bengals did beat the Vikings, that game had more to do with the Vikings throwing it away than the Bengals winning it. If Dalvin Cook doesn’t fumble, this line is probably a little bigger. In terms of the game itself, neither of these teams excite me, but the simple truth is the Bengals have no one to block Khalil Mack or stop the Bears' sneaky-good skill guys. I feel like I’m just getting a couple of free points, so I’m going to go ahead and take the Bears in the Andy Dalton revenge game (I think I just gagged writing that sentence).

Texans (+13) @ Browns: I am under no illusions that the Texans will win this game. Despite their performance against the Jaguars, the Texans still have one of the worst rosters in the league, and the Browns were able to hang for four quarters against the Chiefs. That being said, penciling the Browns to win by two touchdowns would be, in my opinion, a little much. Since the beginning of last year, the Browns only have two wins by more than 13 points, and they have consistently played bad teams close, including a three-point home win against the Texans just last year. Vegas knows that people are excited about the Browns being good and want to bet against the Texans, so they are juicing the line up a few points, daring people to take the Browns at a wrong number. I’m not taking the bait.

Rams (-3.5) @ Colts: This line is way too low. What have we seen that indicates that even on the road, the Rams should be giving less than 4 against the Colts? We saw how dynamic the Rams offense is in Week 1, and we saw the way a Mcvay-style offense can take apart the Colts' defense with Cover 2 beaters. And does anyone feel good about Carson Wentz going up against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey? For the second straight week, we’re gonna lock in the Rams.

Bills (-3.5) @ Dolphins: The truth is I think this line is a little bit too high. We saw in Week 1 that Josh Allen is not invincible, and we know that the Dolphins have the talent on defense to potentially give him similar trouble. At the same time, I simply don’t see the Bills losing this game. If one were to think that the Bills are legitimate Super Bowl contenders- which I do- it’s hard to see them starting off 0-2, and while I think this line should probably be 2 or 2.5, I just don’t love the idea of taking the Dolphins, when realistically the only scenario where those specific numbers make a difference would be if the Bills were to win by exactly a field goal. So while I don’t love the number, the pick simply has to be the Bills.

Patriots (-5.5) @ Jets: This one actually makes me a little nervous, because it seems too easy. Besides the massive roster discrepancies that were evident in Week 1, this game has all the making of a Patriots blowout. For starters, you have the double whammy of Belichick coming off of a loss and going against a rookie Quarterback. The Jets are a young team lacking talent who laid an egg against the Panthers, while the Patriots are a really good veteran team, with a Quarterback who looked fantastic in a Week 1 game in which the final score did not reflect how well each team played. With the fact that all of this is set out to be a double-digit win, the line being only 5.5 makes it seem like there’s something Vegas knows that we don’t, and they’re about to cash in with all the money going in the Patriots direction. For that reason and that reason only, I’m not locking this one in.

49ers (-3) @ Eagles: It seems like Vegas is putting a little too much stock in the Lions' late comeback last week. Yes, the 49ers should have put that game away a lot earlier than they did, but them being up by three or four scores for most of the game is more indicative of what type of game it was than a fluky stretch against a prevent defense. The next few weeks should be really interesting for the Eagles, because they will tell us from a schematic standpoint whether the Eagles' week 1 performance is repeatable. The Eagles ran somewhat of a gimmick offense, with Jalen Hurts averaging only 3.7 yards in the air per pass attempt (for reference Drew Brees averaged 6.3 last year). That stat would indicate that last week’s performance was more of a one-time thing, because that is not a sustainable number. At the same time, the Eagles' skill guys looked legitimately dynamic. They had speed all over the field, and their top two pass catchers in Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert seemed to be open all game. But even if the Eagles are to run an offense based on lateral movement with their skill guys rather than true verticality with the passing game, there has to be a limit to that. Yes, they were able to take advantage of the Falcons, but it should be a lot harder to take advantage of the 49ers' defense. They should have more trouble running the ball, and San Fran’s injuries in the secondary should at least be somewhat negated by the fact that Hurts will once again have to rely on short throws to get the ball out ahead of that pass rush. So if the Eagles are to rely on the same formula, should we expect it to work again against Fred Warner and Co? And should we expect their defense to offer much resistance against a dynamic Niners offense that may have destroyed all of our fantasy teams, but put up 34 points in real life (Dre Greenlaw had a pick-six)? I think not.

Raiders (+6.5) @ Steelers: The Steelers should win this game, but the line seems a little too big. Week 1 was a great win for Pittsburgh, but it remains to be seen how much it told us about their team. Yes their defense was phenomenal, but they could not move the ball on offense, and they can’t rely on a blocked punt every week. As for the Raiders, well the Steelers defense should certainly offer up a lot more resistance than the Ravens did in Week 1. This game will tell us whether Derek Carr only getting pressured 20% of the time despite being blitzed 20 times was due more to the Raiders offensive line, or a putrid Ravens pass rush. Stopping T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Melvin Ingram should be a much taller order for the Raiders front, and my bet is that they will struggle to keep Derek Carr upright. That being said, we saw last week that the Raiders can consistently get to the Quarterback when facing a bad offensive line, and Big Ben certainly does not have the play-extending abilities of Lamar Jackson. Look for a close, lower-scoring game here which I believe the Steelers will ultimately win, but with the Raiders covering.

Saints (-3) @ Panthers: This line seems to be low due to Vegas understandably expecting a correction from the Saints dismantling of the Packers last week, but I think they’re giving a little too much credit to the Panthers. Despite the victory, it was not a very impressive Week 1 for Carolina, with the Jets staying disturbingly close throughout the game and ultimately covering. I don’t see much of a world in which the Saints lose this game, and I think at worst this pushes.

Broncos (-6) @ Jaguars: The Jaguars are simply getting too much respect here. They got blown out by the supposed worst team in football, quite possibly claiming that title in the process. They are a poorly coached, talentless group, being held together by a tantalizing young Quarterback with no protection and an intriguing group of skill guys. Meanwhile, the Broncos do have talent on both sides of the ball and looked like a team that could at least come close to contending for the postseason. Considering the Broncos were favored by 3.5 in the Meadowlands last week, this means that Vegas only thinks the Jaguars are only 2.5 points worse than the Giants. The only thing that makes me nervous is the Vic Fangio factor, but the good news is Urban Meyer is standing on the other sideline. Give me Denver.

Vikings (+3.5) @ Cardinals: This pick may have a little bit too much to do with my preconceived notions coming into the year, and I may very well be proven wrong. I liked the Vikings a little bit more than the Cardinals coming in and while I certainly now think Arizona is better, this game might also provide a bit of a correction. We know the variance that the Kyler-Kliff era has provided so far, with Arizona looking like Super Bowl contenders one week and a last-place team the next. Meanwhile, as discouraging as that Minnesota loss to Cincinnati was, they still have a dynamic group of skill guys on offense. I think it’s more likely than not that the Cardinals win this game, but I think it will be close, and considering that I am seemingly less willing to give up on the Vikings than others, I am going to take the points.

Falcons (+12.5) @ Buccaneers: Similar to the Browns game, I am under no illusions of who is going to win. That being said, this line is also purposely juiced up by Vegas. The Buccaneers are certainly better than the Falcons, but I do believe that Atlanta is a better team than what they showed last week. These two also know each other very well, and always seem to play close games. While Tampa won both games last year, the first one with a four-point game, while the second game became a 17 point blowout because Tampa went for a late touchdown in order to give Antonio Brown a Week 17 contract incentive. Tampa should win, but with the line being this big, I am going to go ahead and take the points.

Cowboys (+3) @ Chargers: This line might be the most confusing of the week to me. Yes, the Chargers are very good, but didn’t we see in Week 1 that the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in football? So why are they getting more points than what their final margin was against Tampa? And while this is technically a home game for the Chargers, we know that SoFi Stadium will be full to the max with people in Cowboys jerseys. I expect this game to be a shootout and a fantasy godsend with Dallas ultimately winning, meaning that taking them as an underdog is a pretty easy pick for me.

Titans (+6.5) @ Seahawks: This is another game where I’m expecting a little bit of a correction from Week 1. The Titans looked about as bad as they could against Arizona, leading to legitimate questions over whether they have the ability to be a top-level offense without Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith. That being said, I still believe that they have enough talent to be a very good offense, and they should have a bounceback this week. This should also be a really interesting game for the Seahawks and will tell us how much they have changed under new OC Shane Waldron. Their offense last week was a revelation, with Waldron finally providing Russell Wilson with a schematic advantage, to go along with Seattle’s top-level talent. This has historically been the type of game that Seattle wins but in a close one. They are traditionally a heart attack team, and this has all the makings of a game that drives their fanbase to the brink, with them ultimately pulling it out with a weird score. That, combined with my expectation that the Titans' offense will bounce back, is enough for me to hesitantly take the points, but this could very well be a game that forces me to rethink this type of Seahawks game going forward.

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Ravens: This line is too low. While I understand the notion of giving a little bit of respect to the Ravens due to the pedigree of the organization, the truth is that this team simply isn’t very good. They got fundamentally dominated on both sides in the trenches last week, struggling to get to Derek Carr despite sending everyone they could, while struggling to protect Lamar when the Raiders were only sending four. Mahomes has historically been dominant against the blitz and has consistently picked apart the Ravens when they send pressure, with the coaching staff showing little willingness to adjust their defensive scheme. On top of that, the Ravens may have reached a point of no return with their injuries. On top of the guys already on IR, Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith, Marquise Brown, and Ronnie Stanley are all questionable with Stanley unlikely to play, while Derek Wolfe is out. As for the Chiefs? They do not have a single player listed on their injury report. And if none of that does it for you, what about the fact that you get to bet on Patrick Mahomes when he’s giving less than four points? The expected atmosphere with the return of fans to Baltimore and John Harbaugh’s home primetime record of 15-2 are the only reasons I am not locking this one in, but I fully expect the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday night.

Packers (-11.5) vs Lions: This is one line that I don’t think is too big. While the Lions had a couple of fun moments at the end, they looked truly horrible on Sunday, with no real cause for optimism on the roster outside of the play of Penei Sewell and D’andre Swift, who may not play Monday night. While the Packers were horrible as well, they are way more likely to bounce back. With them returning to a full house in Lambeau under the bright lights, expect a motivated Packers team to come out and beat the Lions in a blowout.