After a little bit of a break to move into college, we are back in full swing for football season. This will be the first of my weekly picks columns, where I’ll pick every game against the spread and keep track of my record for the year. One little wrinkle is that if I think a game is a sure thing I am allowed to bold it and make it a lock, and if I get the pick right I get two wins in the standings, but if I’m wrong I get two losses. So without further ado, here are my Week 1 picks, as well as end-of-season predictions (all lines as of Thursday afternoon on FanDuel).
Buccaneers (-8.5) vs Cowboys: The truth is that this pick makes me nervous. Not that I have any illusions over who is going to win, but because the Cowboys could very easily cover. If one is to think that they are the favorites to win their division, which I do, wouldn’t predicting them to lose by two scores right out of the gate be a bad sign? On top of that, this game has enormous backdoor potential. If the Cowboys have the ball down two scores late, they are a prime candidate to score a garbage-time touchdown to cover the spread. That being said, I simply cannot go against Tampa. I firmly believe that they are the best team in the NFC and have the deepest roster in the league, and there is simply no way I would pick against them in Week 1. The Cowboys have no one to cover any of Tampa’s receivers and should get shredded by Brady and Co. Considering that Tampa will be riding the high of getting the banner raised and playing in front of a full stadium for the first time in the Brady era, the pick has to be Tampa.
Bills (-6.5) vs Steelers: This line scares me a little bit as well, but not as much as the Thursday Night game. We all must acknowledge the idea that the Steelers could be good simply out of respect to Mike Tomlin and that defense, but I don’t love their prospects going into this season. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football, and a Quarterback who can’t throw the ball deep. Meanwhile, the Bills are bringing back last year’s dynamic offense and should come out firing on all cylinders. This game should provide a good test run for the pass-rush that the Bills so heavily invested in this offseason with the purpose of getting to Patrick Mahomes. If they can’t get to Big Ben, we should maybe start to get a little worried, but there is ultimately no reason to think that the Bills shouldn’t be fine this week.
Jets (+5) @Panthers: I really hate this game. I do not like either of these teams and hate having to make a Week 1 pick. The Panthers bafflingly passed on Justin Fields in the draft, instead opting to go with Sam Darnold. I think it is absurd to say he will be the next Ryan Tannehill, considering Tannehill was a mediocre Quarterback with Adam Gase whereas Darnold was literally one of the worst Quarterbacks in football. And none of this is to say I believe in the Jets, considering they have one of the least talented rosters in football. But if I hate both teams and don’t want to pay a ton of attention to the game, I might as well just take the points.
Jaguars (-2.5) @ Texans: I don’t really understand why this line is so low. Yes the Jaguars are horrible and the Urban Meyer experiment has already gone wrong in like 10 different ways, but have you seen what’s been going on with the Texans? Their general manager is a preacher, their coach was the person who coached the Ravens Wide Receivers, and their Quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. On top of that, their recent purge of all their veterans who could help in any manner, indicated a clear desire to tank. If the worst roster in football is making their roster even worse, you probably shouldn’t pick them no matter what. If they’re giving less than a field goal? That might be the best value in betting against the Texans all year.
Titans (-3) vs Cardinals: This is another line that I feel is too low. The truth is I don’t feel like the Cardinals are going to be very good. Last year’s group was very lucky to be 8-8 and were a couple plays away from being 6-10. On top of that, they go from facing one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses to one of the toughest, and they start off with one of the best. We all know how dynamic Tennessee’s offense is with Tannehill at the helm (yes he is a top-tier Quarterback), throwing to AJ Brown and now Julio Jones as well, with Derrick Henry as the anchor. The simple truth is that this game should be a shootout and a fantasy godsend, and I think the Titans offense is worth more than three points over that of the Cardinals.
Falcons (-3.5) vs Eagles: This is another line that confuses me. What evidence do we have that the Eagles should be good? Jalen Hurts is OK I guess, but the roster as a whole lacks talent, to put it nicely, and Nick Sirianni was a somewhat baffling hire. As for the Falcons, they are primed for improvement over last year. They had horrible luck in close games and got rid of the coaching that caused them to lose so many of those games. On top of that Arthur Smith is the perfect coach with Matt Ryan, and he will hopefully unlock some of that 2016 magic. With Calvin Ridley poised to make another jump and the defense coming back healthier, I love this spot against the Eagles. Assuming Vegas is returning to their old methods with fans coming back, this line indicates that the Falcons would only be favored by half a point in Philly. That seems way too low, and this should be a good spot for the Falcons to cover.
Chargers (-1) @ Washington Football Team: This should be a really exciting Week 1 game, and a really intriguing test for both of these teams. The Chargers have been touting their revamped offensive line following their fundamental inability to protect Justin Hebert last year. They will be getting tested immediately out of the gate by virtue of going up against Washington’s dynamic young defensive front. The matchup of The Chargers’ rookie standout Rashawn Slater going up against the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year in Chase Young will be particularly fascinating to watch, especially considering the way Slater manhandled him when they matched up in college. It should also be interesting to see how the Chargers function under new faces in coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The entire narrative of the Chargers offseason has been about doing everything they can to help Justin Herbert, and they will immediately get to test their work against Washington. On the other side of the ball, it will be interesting to see how this offense looks with Fitzpatrick. While I am not convinced he upgrades their offense significantly compared to last year, he certainly makes it more dynamic and opens up the field for their receivers in a way that was not previously possible. With all of that being said, I simply think the Chargers are a better team, and with this game essentially being a pick 'em’, that is enough for me.
49ers (-7.5) @ Lions: This game shouldn’t be too difficult. Looking at the rosters there is no comparison between these two teams. The 49ers are competing for a super bowl, and the Lions are competing for the first pick. Kyle Shanahan has had Jared Goff’s number for years and that was with Sean Mcvay calling plays instead of Anthony Lynn. The most interesting factor in this game is going to see how frequently and in what manner San Francisco uses Trey Lance, as Shanahan has confirmed that they will be using Lance in special packages similar to what the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson over the first half of 2018 (hopefully Jimmy G shows a little more enthusiasm during those plays than Joe Flacco did). Bottom line, I think the 49ers are going to be up by at least two scores if not more for most of the game. Do I think Goff and Co. have scary backdoor potential? I do not. This is the type of game that if it were being played later in the year, the Niners would be at least double-digit favorites. Lock this one in.
Seahawks (-2.5) @ Colts: This is a fascinating game that will feature two new offenses that we’ve been waiting to see. On the one hand, we will see whether Frank Reich is able to magically cure Carson Wentz of his turnoveritis (doubtful), while on the other we get to see whether new Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron will unlock Russell Wilson with a Mcvay type offense. I find it hard to pick the Colts for this game, considering that right now they have players moving on and off the COVID list at warp speed (ba-dum crash) and are a team where seemingly none of their major contributors are vaccinated. And you want me to pick them against September Russ? Please.
Vikings (-3.5) @ Bengals: This is another situation where I feel like the line would be a little bit bigger later in the season. While there was reason to be optimistic about the direction of the Bengals a couple of months ago, all of that seems to have unraveled during training camp. Joe Burrow has had some issues with trusting his surgically repaired knee while Jamar Chase has seemingly forgotten how to catch a football, and has taken to blaming the differences in the ball itself between the NFL and college. Meanwhile, the Vikings are a team that has flown under the radar but should have a top-flight offense. They have a top-tier running back, two top-tier receivers, and an above-average Quarterback in Kirk Cousins. They missed the playoffs last year due to a number of shootouts in which their defense simply didn’t hold up, but that group should be at least a little bit better this year thanks to the addition of Patrick Peterson and the return of a couple of veterans. That being said, I am not too concerned about Minnesota’s defense when it comes to this week. I don’t really like anything when it comes to the Bengals and considering that I love the Vikings offense, that should be more than enough to cover just 3.5.
Patriots (-3) vs Dolphins: This is a fascinating game that everyone will overreact to. These are two relatively polarizing teams, especially when it comes to their respective Quarterbacks, and the likelihood is that both guys will have moments this week that will cement everyone’s opinions, no matter where they stand. Once you get by those two, you then have to look at the rest of the roster. The Patriots are returning a lot of guys on defense, while the Dolphins should be due for some natural negative regression due to their turnover luck last year. I am worried about their ability to protect Tua against this Patriots front, and the Patriots have skills guys who may be wildly overpaid but are still more talented than last year’s group. These are two teams that are still developing and should progressively change throughout, and there is a good chance that the two teams that we see Sunday will bear little resemblance to the ones we see when these two face off again in Week 18. This game probably has more mathematical implications in terms of simply giving the two teams a win and a loss in the standings, rather than giving us any major lessons about either team. With that being the case, I am going to go with the experience and the greatest coach of all time to cover.
Giants (+3) vs Broncos: I do not feel good about this game at all. These are two teams that I am not particularly high on, in a matchup that does not excite me. I myself am not buying into some of the Broncos hype. While they do have a lot of talent at the skill positions, at the end of the day I hate their coach and offensive coordinator in Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur, and I am not particularly enthused about the idea of a Teddy Bridgewater dink and dunk offense. And while they have talent on defense, they have a number of injury-prone guys, and Bradley Chubb is already a question mark going into week one. This is not to say I like the Giants any better. They have a better but still questionable coach and have a horrible offensive line blocking for one of the worst Quarterbacks in football. I also think their defense is slightly overrated, and may not be as good as we think it is. In a game where I don’t love either team, I might as well take the points in a game where the favored road team is traveling cross-country.
Packers (-4.5) @* Saints: The location of this game gets an asterisk because while the Saints are the home team, the game is being played in Jacksonville due to the horrors of Hurricane Ida. Instead of having the first game back in front of fans, the Saints will instead be opening to a weird atmosphere in front of a half-empty stadium that will likely feature a healthy dose of Packers fans. On top of that, the Packers are simply better. While the Saints have enough talent to be competitive, there seems to be a disconnect with the discussion over where the drop-off comes from. The discussion initially was about the problems with losing Drew Brees, even though Brees was not very good last year, and installing Jameis Winston might be a slight upgrade. But then once everyone realized that they then decided that this means the Saints could be as good as last year. The reason the Saints should regress is not because of a drop off at Quarterback, but because of the loss of guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Sheldon Rankins, Malcolm Brown, Trey Hendrickson, Kwon Alexander, and Alex Anzalone among others. This team should regress on defense, and are faced with multiple injuries on offense. Could they compete? Sure. Am I gonna take them in a fake home game in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers? No.
Chiefs (-5.5) vs Browns: The line in this game has been moving in the Browns direction, which confuses me. Yes, the Browns should be very good, but we should understand what that means contextually. The Browns overachieved last year, winning a number of close games against bad teams, giving up more than they scored for the season, and finishing with a lower DVOA than the 4-12 Falcons. While the Browns are due for some serious negative regression, they should also be a better team as a whole, due to a vastly improved defense and a greater comfort level in their second year under Kevin Stefanski. That being said, that probably puts them in the same place as last year- somewhere around an 11 that makes some hay in the playoffs but doesn’t seriously compete for the Super Bowl. As for the Chiefs, well they somehow got better. All they did was take their one offensive weakness, their offensive line, and juice it up with the additions of Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, and Creed Humphrey. The Chiefs should be better than they were last year and are my pick to win the Super Bowl. Them giving less than a touchdown at home in Week 1 seems absurd to me and makes them my pick for this game.
Rams (-7.5) vs Bears: The Bears should start off really bad. Like really bad. Their offensive line is horrible, and they are inexplicably blocking for Andy Dalton, someone who is clearly inferior to Justin Fields, their current backup. Their defense should be pretty good, but as a whole, there is not much to get excited about with this team until Fields takes the helm. Meanwhile, the Rams have been one of the most hyped-up teams in football this offseason. The arrival of Matthew Stafford has caused a new pep in Sean Mcvay’s step, and they are getting serious Super Bowl buzz. While I am hesitant about crowning them quite yet- I think they are at best the second-best team in the conference behind Tampa and could wind up being the fourth behind The Niners and Packers. That being said, there is a mile of difference between them and the Bears. Whereas the Rams will have the Week 1 excitement of this new offense along with their first game at their new stadium with fans, the Bears are just waiting around to change Quarterbacks. The Rams should win this one, and in a bloodbath at that.
Ravens (-4) @ Raiders: This one scares me a lotta bit. This has been the absolute training camp from hell for my beloved Baltimore Ravens. They’ve lost four starters in the past two weeks to torn ACLs, as well as linebacker LJ Fort and All-Pro Corner Marcus Peters. Besides the tangible impact of these injuries, they have taken an emotional toll on the team as well. They stopped practice early Thursday after Peters and Gus Edwards tore their ACLs on back-to-back plays- to regroup from that and fly cross-country to play a game on Monday Night Football just a couple of days later is a tall task. As for the Raiders, well the vibes should be better. They will be playing their first game in Vegas with fans, in front of what should be a raucous crowd. That being said, The Ravens should still be the pick. Even with all the injuries they still have a lot of talent, not to mention a massive coaching advantage over the Raiders. The Ravens are still a team competing for the playoffs, whereas the Raiders are just hoping to sniff .500. So while there is a lot to worry about for the Ravens this week and in the long run, they ultimately still should be at least four points better than the Raiders.
Season Predictions
AFC 1 Seed: Chiefs
Other AFC Division Winners: Bills, Ravens Titans
AFC Wild Cards: Browns, Patriots, Chargers
AFC Champion: Chiefs
NFC 1 Seed: Buccaneers
Other NFC Division Winners: 49ers, Packers, Cowboys
NFC Wild Cards: Rams, Seahawks, Falcons
NFC Champion: Buccaneers
Super Bowl Champion: Chiefs
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