Forming the Super Bowl Club Part 2: The AFC, Plus Week 17 Picks

With two weeks left in the regular season, we now have a better idea than we have all year of who stands where in the NFL. We have 15 games of data, as well as a better understanding of how the top of the conferences could shape out in terms of playoff seeding. That means that it is officially time to form the Super Bowl club, the list of teams who I think can realistically compete for the Super bowl. I have always enjoyed making the Super Bowl club because it is a helpful exercise in shaping the way we should look at the next month and a half of the NFL. The important thing with the Super Bowl club is that it is not absolute and is very malleable- that means that teams can leave and join and that two people’s lists may look different. That being said, I thought it would be a good time to give my guide of how I think we should be looking at things as we enter the playoffs. I’m doing the AFC today- if you want to read my breakdown of the NFC from earlier this week click here. Before I start, I’m going to give a fair warning that I am about to reference Football Outsiders’ DVOA stat a lot in this article. DVOA is a percentage stat that looks at a team’s per-play efficiency and adjusts it for strength of schedule. For a fuller explanation, click here. So without further ado, here is your 2021 AFC Super Bowl Club.

The Undisputed Favorite

Kansas City Chiefs

There’s not much to say about the Chiefs other than they are completely back, and once again in the driver’s seat in the AFC. What is interesting about their rise is how it has surprised many. The Chiefs are maybe the classic example of how people seem to mistake being legitimately concerned about a team’s present performance, and believing that a bad phase will never change. To me, my biggest concern with the Chiefs was the math equation. It wasn’t necessarily a question of whether they would figure things out, but how far back in the AFC they would be once they did. In an era where the one seed is such an advantage, I was worried about the realities of likely winding up as a 6 seed. When they were 3-4 with the offense heading in the wrong direction, it seemed unlikely they would turn things around in time. While they will mostly be forgotten, the next two games were the most important of their season. As ugly as they were, pulling close low-scoring games out against the Giants and the Jordan Love Packers were the two most important games of their year. Not because of what it meant for the team- if anything those games only exacerbated the concerns- but what they mean now. Once the Chiefs did figure things out, the hole was not as deep as it seemed like it would, and they were suddenly in a position to capture the 1-seed coming into the Chargers game despite the fact that in the previous two months they were averaging just 14.2 offensive points against teams who weren’t the Raiders. The play of their defense, along with some lucky breaks such as facing the Packers and Cowboys without Jordan Love, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Tyron Smith gave them more time than it seemed like they would need to figure things out. With the AFC collapsing around them, the Chiefs found ways to win ugly and put themselves in a favorable position. Now that the office seems to be humming along? They are the team against which all other AFC contenders are measured.

The Challenger

Buffalo Bills

My take on Buffalo all year has largely remained the same. From day one I have felt that they would be a very good team that would compete for and possibly win the Super Bowl, but that they would not be as good as last year- and so far that has borne out. While they are not replicating last year’s second-half average of 38 points per game, they are still one of the best teams in football. What’s interesting about this year’s Bills team is their inconsistency. DVOA has a stat called variance, which measures the average of the difference between a team’s DVOA throughout the year and where they are on the average week. DVOA is an average of team performance throughout the year, so variance looks at the degree to which a team actually performs to their average. The Bills have the biggest DVOA variance this year, and it’s not very close. While they no longer have the highest variance in history, a title they once held this year, they still have a variance of 32.6%, an astronomical number. They’ve had a single-game DVOA of at least 50% six times this year, a number no other team has eclipsed more than four times. They’ve also put up some massive stinkers, with four games below -20% DVOA.

The question of course with inconsistent teams such as the Bills is how that translates to the playoffs. Generally there is no precise answer, because there truly are two possible outcomes. On the one hand, inconsistency could be a mark of a team with incredible potential that they haven’t completely tapped into, or it could be a mark of a team that is unable to play quality playoff football for three or four straight games. Just last year, the Buccaneers had the biggest DVOA variance in football, showing that if a team is inconsistent but ultimately a great team, a description which the Bills fit, it is very possible to go on a run. What’s different about this Bills team is the degree of their inconsistency. Last year’s Buccaneers team had an unusually low variance for a team to lead the league, with a variance of 21.4%, a number much lower than this year’s Bills. The highest variance for a team to win the Super Bowl was the 1996 Packers at around 25%, meaning that it would be unprecedented for a team as inconsistent as the Bills to win the Super Bowl.

Regardless of their inconsistency, the Bills should be universally considered the second-best team in the AFC. They have the highest DVOA in the conference, and have shown every indication in the last few weeks of a team ready to make a run. The problem of course is simply the math question. They aren’t getting a first-round bye, meaning that they will have to win three straight games to make the Super Bowl, and will likely have to beat some combination of the Patriots, Colts, and Titans just to get to the AFC Championship, all teams which they lost to earlier in the year. And then if they get to the AFC Championship, they will likely still have to beat the Chiefs. Every one of those teams are ones that we know the Bills can beat, meaning there is a path for them to get to the Super Bowl. The question is simply in actuality how likely it is to get through both of their two games, and then beat the Chiefs again as underdogs.

Possibly Fraudulent

New England Patriots

Two weeks ago I was completely in on the Patriots. I fully believed not only in their winning streak, but their ability to win multiple ways. You see, once the Patriots had won seven straight games it was hard to deny that they were one of the best all-around teams in football. They have no weakness on defense and a dominant offensive line that spearheads a punishing running game. The question of course was not only the passing game, but the ability to open up the offense with Mac Jones. While it was clear Mac Jones had certain tools, the question was always the arm strength. In the Buccaneers loss earlier this year Jones attempted just one pass beyond 15 air yards, which got intercepted. The common thinking was that in order for the Patriots to compete, they would have to open the offense over the course of the year, something which seemed to be happening. From weeks 4-14 Mac Jones was third in football in expected points added per play, with a similar average target depth to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers during that period. However, almost all of those passes came within the context of a game plan, because all of those games were going as the Patriots had scripted during the week. The coaching staff was scheming ways to situationally allow Mac to fire away, but I had thought that his general improvement in those areas would translate to games where things weren’t going as planned and it was time to just play ball. I was wrong.

The last two losses have been alarming when it comes to Mac Jones. There haven’t been many alarming signs with the defense- they played very well against the Colts, and there wasn’t much anyone could have done to stop Josh Allen last Sunday (except for J.C. Jackson dropping the pick that could have changed the game). In my mind, these losses fall almost entirely on Mac. In both games the Pats went down and were in situations where they needed to generate explosives, something which they were unable to do. In fairness they did score 17 fourth quarter points against the Colts, but that relied on a turnover and then a jump ball caught by N’keal Harry to generate those two touchdowns. Last week’s game was alarming, as even when the Patriots went down they simply did not throw the ball down the field. There were legitimate questions about the coaching staff’s trust in Mac Jones after the Bills game, as no matter the conditions, only throwing the ball three times should be a major red flag in terms of a coaching staff’s trust in their Quarterback to make big plays when necessary. Well, this week fully answered this question. This was Mac Jones’ passing chart via Next Gen Stats from this past week (note that the two green dots beyond ten yards came in garbage time when the Bills were in a prevent defense).

In a game to decide the division, this type of passing chart indicates a coaching staff that does not trust their Quarterback to make throws down the field, while the results indicate a Quarterback that is unable to do so. The Patriots seem to be a team that needs to play a certain way in order to win games, something which will be very hard to do three straight times. This is not necessarily an indictment on Mac Jones’ future- remember he still is a rookie with room to grow- but rather a question of New England’s ceiling this year. I still believe that the Patriots have a team that is good enough to beat any team in the NFL on any given day. They put up one of the best stretches we’ve seen in the NFL this year, with wins against teams such as the Chargers, Browns, Titans, and Bills, as well as some of the most dominant performances in the NFL this year. They’ve gone to the wire against the Buccaneers and the Cowboys, showing that they can hang with the best. The question is whether they can win in multiple ways. It is very rare to win a Super Bowl as a Wild Card following the same game script every time- and if it comes time to sling it, I do not trust Mac Jones to make the necessary plays. And I don’t think Bill Belichick does either.

The Wild Card

Indianapolis Colts

This designation is extremely apt for the Colts, as they are likely to wind up as both an AFC Wild Card and the wild card when it comes to Super Bowl contention. The truth is the Colts should probably be the one-seed right now. They may have started 0-3, but ever since Week 4 they have been the best team in the AFC. From Weeks 4-8 they had a five-game stretch in which they should have gone 5-0 but only went 3-2. They first lost an improbable game to the Ravens in which they blew a 10-point lead, but still would have one if either their kicker didn’t get injured causing a missed extra point and a blocked field goal that kept the game at one and two possessions respectfully during Baltimore’s comeback, before missing a game-winning kick once Baltimore had tied the game up. Even then, they needed one of the greatest statistical passing performances in football history and Baltimore to win the coin toss to lose that game. Three weeks later, they had another improbable loss to Tennessee which was one of the more unlikely results of the year based on the single-game DVOA for both teams. Since then they’ve gone on a dominant 6-1 stretch, but really this version of the Colts has existed going back to Week 4. If the Colts win both of those games, which they completely should have, they would be the number one-seed in the AFC right now, with an incredible resume. They already have dominant wins against the 49ers, Bills, and Patriots, with their one loss since dropping to 3-5 being a game against Tampa that went down to the wire. It’s not a fluke that they have seven pro bowlers, and it’s not a fluke that they are sixth in Weighted DVOA, which weights a team’s DVOA to put a greater emphasis on recent performance. They are really good.

The problem the Colts face right now is the way the matchups seem to be shaking out. Of all of the AFC contenders the Chiefs are far and away the worst matchup for the Colts. While this is obviously true because they are the best team, the Chiefs seem to be the one team that is impervious to the Colts’ style of play. The way the Colts beat explosive offenses is by running the ball and keeping the other offense off the field in order to shorten the game before asking their defense to make a play or two. The strategy has not only never worked against a healthy version of the Chiefs, but it has usually led to astronomical blowouts. In order for the Colts to make the Super Bowl they will most likely have to avoid the Chiefs, something which never seemed likely, but wasn’t impossible. You see, coming into this week the Patriots were in first-place in the AFC North, meaning they were the two seed and the Bills were the six. The path for the Colts at that point was to beat whoever from the AFC North wound up as the number four seed, and hoping that the Bills would beat the Titans. This would then give the Colts a favorable matchup against the Patriots in the second round, with the Chiefs-Bills game being bumped up a week. While the Chiefs should be favored against anyone in the AFC, the Bills do match up better with them than anyone else in the conference, and we have already seen them take it to Kansas City this year. The best case scenario for the Colts would be for them and Buffalo to then win in the second-round, meaning they would then play a Buffalo team who we know they can beat if a 41-15 Week 11 victory is any indication. While unlikely, that very specific path gave the Colts a plausible scenario in which their underperformance in seeding wouldn’t hurt them, and they could maybe avoid the Chiefs. Now that the Bills are in first place in the AFC East that doesn’t seem possible, as the only way Buffalo plays Kansas City before the Conference Championship is if they drop a game to either the Falcons or the Jets.

The other question with the Colts is obviously Carson Wentz. While it seems unlikely that he shows up for three straight rounds, they are going to need two things from him. They will need him to not make any-game losing mistakes, and to go out and make some plays to win the game for them when necessary- something which is possible considering he did just that this past week against Arizona. The problem is that Wentz really enjoys turning the ball over in big spots, and only shows up in that manner once every three or so weeks. They will need a very specific order of Wentz performances to not only get through the games they should win, but then find a way to match scores with the Chiefs. This seems unlikely- meaning that those Week 5 and 8 losses will loom larger than ever for Indy.

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Week 17 Picks

Last Week’s Record: (6-11, 0-1 locks)

Season Record: 128-128-1

*Lines as of Saturday Afternoon

Ravens (+6) vs Rams

Bills (-14.5) vs Falcons

Bears (-6) vs Giants

Chiefs (-4, lock) @ Bengals

Titans (-3.5) vs Dolphins

Colts (-8) vs Raiders

Patriots (-16.5) vs Jaguars

Buccaneers (-13.5) @ Jets

Eagles (-4.5) @ WFT

Broncos (+7.5) @ Chargers

49ers (-12.5) vs Texans

Cardinals (+6) @ Cowboys

Saints (-6.5) vs Panthers

Lions (+7.5) @ Seahawks

Packers (-13) vs Vikings

Steelers (+3.5) vs Browns