Forming the Super Bowl Club, Part 1: The NFC

With two weeks left in the regular season, we now have a better idea than we have all year of who stands where in the NFL. We have 15 games of data, as well as a better understanding of how the top of the conferences could shape out in terms of playoff seeding. That means that it is officially time to form the Super Bowl club, the list of teams who I think can realistically compete for the Super bowl. I have always enjoyed making the Super Bowl club because it is a helpful exercise in shaping the way we should look at the next month and a half of the NFL. The important thing with the Super Bowl club is that it is not absolute and is very malleable- that means that teams can leave and join and that two people’s lists may look different. That being said, I thought it would be a good time to give my guide of how I think we should be looking at things as we enter the playoffs. I’m doing the NFC today, with the AFC in part 2 coming in a few days. Before I start, I’m going to give a fair warning that I am about to reference Football Outsiders’ DVOA stat a lot in this article. DVOA is a percentage stat that looks at a team’s per-play efficiency and adjusts it for strength of schedule. For a fuller explanation, click here. So without further ado, here is your 2021 NFC Super Bowl Club.

The Definite Contenders

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are the most fascinating NFL team in 2021. They are a team that seems to be overperforming, but not in the way one would expect. You see, the most typical example of an overperforming team is one that consistently wins close games against bad teams and then puts up stinkers against good teams. The 2019 Packers were the perfect example of this. They consistently won close games against teams like Detroit, Washington and Chicago, while getting blown out by the 49ers and Chargers. They wound up as a 13-win team that finished with a win expectancy of just 9.7 based on their point differential and finished 13th in Weighted DVOA which gives greater weight to recent performance towards the end of the season. Sure enough, after eeking out a close game against a similarly overperforming Seahawks team, the Packers' luck caught up to them and they got blown out by the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game in one of the more lopsided playoff games in recent memory. Well, the numbers for this year’s Packers team suggest that they are also overperforming. They are currently 12-3 despite having a win expectancy of 9-6 and are currently 10th in DVOA. This does come with a couple of caveats. The first is that Week 1 game against New Orleans, where they put up one of the worst performances of this NFL season in a 38-3 loss, but even that doesn’t explain the whole story. If you remove that game their win expectancy goes up by about .3. Even in Weighted DVOA, which gives greater weight to recent performance and has entirely removed Week 1 as a point of reference still has the Packers at just 8th, a higher position but still nowhere near the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Rams. They also have the Jordan Love game- but in this weird year nearly every team has had at least 1 COVID/injury game baked into the data, and even removing that game would not dramatically swing things.

What makes this year’s Packers team interesting is that they are not overperforming in the typical manner. Outside of Week 1, they haven’t had any horrible performances, and they haven’t necessarily been relying on close wins against bottom feeders to get where they are. Rather, they are playing consistently good but not great. Their largest margin of victory this year is only 18 against the Lions, but seven of their 12 wins have been between eight and 18 points. They haven’t gone over 50% for single-game DVOA once, a figure which the Bills, Buccaneers, Patriots, Cowboys, and Rams have all eclipsed three times, with the Chiefs doing it twice. Simply put, the Packers have not had the dominating performances that we typically expect as a Super Bowl indicator- but if we are willing to throw away Week 1, which I think we should be, then they also haven’t had the type of alarming performances that typically serve as playoff red flags.

The most glaring problem with this Packers team is the Special Teams. We typically don’t talk about Special Teams as an indicator of team performance, which makes sense. It is something that we understand will have a massive impact over any individual playoff game, but rarely has enough of an impact over the course of a season to serve as a predictor. This year’s Packers are an exception to the rule because of how bad they’ve been. While most Special Teams units generally hover close to 0% DVOA, this year’s Packers are at -6.6%. In layman’s terms, that means that an average Special Teams unit going up against the Packers in any given game will have as much of or similar of an impact in providing value to their team as an average Defense going against the Offenses of the Jets or Washington Football Team. That is a massive problem for the playoffs and something that will come up at some point.

The two biggest factors that will get the Packers to the Super Bowl are Aaron Rodgers and maintaining Home-Field Advantage. Let’s start off with Rodgers. Rodgers’ performance has almost been underrated this year, because of the degree of difficulty the rest of the team gives him. The Packers rarely win the field position battle because of special teams and a mediocre-at-best Defense, meaning that he has to make up for inches lost in other areas of the game. On top of that, he can’t make mistakes- something which he is better at than maybe anyone in the history of the game. He hasn’t thrown double-digit interceptions since 2010, and currently has the lowest interception percentage in the league for the fourth straight year. Out of everything he does, Rodgers’ ability to both makeup for his teams’ deficiencies while not putting the other units in bad positions is perhaps his greatest strength- and the biggest reason why the Packers are where they are. Them leading the league in turnover differential has more to do with Rodgers than it has to do with their Defense because they avoid making game-breaking mistakes more than any other team, something which is reflected in the numbers. The problem of course is how much this translates to the playoffs. A common myth is that picking against the Packers is picking against Aaron Rodgers, which is simply not true. Rather, it is a bet about whether Rodgers can both maintain that level of play against heightened competition AND whether the rest of the team can avoid making those similar game-breaking mistakes that would make Rodgers' performance obsolete. If history is any indicator that has not been the case, which is why Rodgers has only made one Super Bowl despite being one of the greatest playoff performers in NFL history. Rodgers may play great, but all of a sudden Brandon Bostick is dropping an onside kick, or Larry Fitzgerald is running free, or Scottie Miller has mysteriously gotten behind the Defense. That being said, if the Packers want to get to the Super Bowl, having a Quarterback who is playing better than anyone in the league right now is a pretty good luxury.

The most important factor for the Packers in getting to the Super Bowl, and the reason they are ultimately the NFC favorite until further notice, is them having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The one-seed is already a massive advantage in this new format with only one bye team, but it means even more for them than it would for anyone else. That is because in an era in which road teams are now winning around 50% of the time, Lambeau Field seems to be one of the true few home-field advantages that still exist in the NFL. The Packers have not lost there yet this year, and only have three home losses dating back to the beginning of 2019. What makes that advantage in this year’s playoffs even starker is that the next-best outdoor cold-weather team in the NFC is the Eagles, a team that will probably make the playoffs but shouldn’t really be contending for anything. Every other team I am going to mention in this article is either southern, indoors, or both. Simply put, they have little preparation for playing on the frozen tundra and will be very uncomfortable. Yes, the Buccaneers won in Lambeau last year, but that in many ways was in spite of the weather tampering down their Offense. And do you see the Cowboys, Rams, or Cardinals winning in Lambeau? I didn’t think so. Simply put, if the Packers hold on to the one-seed they should still be the NFC favorites in spite of everything. If not? Well, then they might start to have some problems.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Tampa, it will all come down to injuries. While they are one of the most injured teams in football, the good news for them is that most of them aren’t season-ending. The list of guys they have missing is quite extensive, but it is almost as long as the guys who they hope to get back. As of now, they are hoping that Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Shaq Barrett, Antoine Winfield, LaVonte David, and Jason Pierre-Paul are back for the playoffs. They have started to get some guys back in the secondary, but it’s still a waiting game for the rest of those guys. While the absence of Chris Godwin will obviously loom large, a skill group of Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski is still one of the most formidable that exists in the NFL. If they are able to get healthy by the playoffs, we could be looking at a situation where they come in as actually one of the most healthy teams. So much of health in the NFL is contextual- you have teams like the Ravens who suffer a deluge of season-ending injuries, and then there are groups who just can’t seem to get their guys together at the same time. The Bucs fall in the latter category and are hoping to just play these last two games against the Jets and Panthers out before hopefully coming into the playoffs with as close to a full arsenal as they are going to get. Once there, we know they can match up with anyone in the conference, although the Saints and Cowboys are two matchups that could particularly give them trouble. The question of course is whether they go to Lambeau and beat the Packers. While they did so last year, there has been a bit of revisionist history regarding that game. Tom Brady was bad in that game, throwing three second-half interceptions, and was largely bailed out by a playmaking Defense and some questionable coaching from the Packers, a set of circumstances that seem pretty hard to repeat. There are also general questions about how this team plays in cold weather. Tom Brady has admitted that even he didn’t realize how much he preferred to play in warm weather at this point in his career, and Tampa’s one cold-weather game this year was a stinker against Washington. If they have their guys back the Bucs have to be taken seriously as a team that we know can win the Super Bowl- but they might have to overcome some major obstacles to get there.

Dallas Cowboys

The funny thing about the Cowboys is that their recent offensive problems caused all of us (including me) to underrate them. You see, we all came into the year believing that the only way for the Cowboys to win was through their high-flying Offense. We were so scarred by watching that Defense last year that we believed they were one-dimensional. We treated them winning ugly low-scoring games through their Defense similar to what we did a similar period with the Chiefs, except without the benefit of the doubt that the Cowboys would eventually figure it out. Through all of this, we completely ignored some tell-tale signs of a great team. We ignored a Defense that was number 3 in DVOA and number 2 in Weighted DVOA coming into this week. We ignored a team that had not lost all year to a team that came into this week below .500. We instead looked at a supposed “dry spell” which consisted of a stretch in which they outscored opponents by nearly ten points per game. In a sense, we were so convinced that the Cowboys were one-dimensional that we completely ignored that they were one of the most complete teams in the league. Well, that all changed Sunday night. Everything came together in that game, in a way that we should have been expecting to for a long time. And as abominable and injured as the Washington Football Team is, that is not a game that can simply be explained away by the opponent. The number one determinant of a championship team is obviously being able to blow out great teams. But the data has shown that the second-best indicator is being able to blow out bad teams. That performance Sunday night from the Cowboys was a championship performance. When looking at their resume, they are now a team that is number one overall in both DVOA and Weighted DVOA, while having the number one Defense as well. They have wire-to-wire blowout wins against the Football Team, the Falcons, the Giants, and the Eagles, as well as quality victories against the Chargers and Patriots, as well as against the Vikings with Cooper Rush at Quarterback.

As it is with some many teams, the biggest question with the Cowboys is health. The most legitimate concern for the Cowboys during their recent stretch was that Dak Prescott simply did not look like himself. He wasn’t moving the same and seemed indecisive both in and out of the pocket. The most recent Giants game was encouraging, as even though the numbers didn’t show it he looked the most comfortable he had in a long-time. They now have their full complement of receivers for the first time all year and are expecting to get Tyron Smith back in the next week or two. If Dak is actually okay, there is no one they can’t beat in the NFC. Think they can’t beat Tampa? They were a missed offensive interference call from beating them earlier this year! Think they can’t beat Green Bay? After what we saw this past week, imagine if their offensive line was playing the Packers, but had Dak instead of Baker at Quarterback. And we haven’t even talked about the pass rush which is also fully healthy for the first time this year. Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence allow Micah Parsons to be one of the freakiest hybrids we’ve seen in recent memory, and make life hell for opposing Offensive Lines and Quarterbacks. The question for them of course, like all other teams, is whether they can go into Lambeau and win a game. They would rightfully be underdogs at the Packers, considering both Dak’s sketchy cold-weather resume and the general dominance of the Packers at home. But if the Packers drop a game and the Cowboys become the one-seed? They become the NFC favorites- if Mike McCarthy can stay out of their way. And that’s a big “if.”

Possibly Fraudulent

Los Angeles Rams

As good as the Rams may seem, I still can’t quite get there with them. They are currently fourth in DVOA and have an incredibly balanced team that is in the top 10 in Offense, Defense, and Special Teams. They have a superstar receiver who will probably break the single-season yardage record. They have an offensive line that is first in pass block and sixth in run block win rate, while their defensive line is first in both areas. They have perhaps the best defensive player since Lawrence Taylor, as well as perhaps the best cornerback since Deion Sanders. And yet- I still can’t put them on a tier with the three above teams.

The biggest question mark for the Rams is Matthew Stafford. That isn’t to say that I dislike Stafford- I was one of the people who spent years saying that he was on a team that was failing him- but rather that I don’t trust him to not lose the Rams one of their playoff games. You see, Stafford is a Quarterback who should be an elite player in the Rams system. He was number one in expected points added per play last year in play-action, and Sean McVay has historically used one of the highest levels of play-action in the NFL. And yet McVay has insisted on going to a more traditional drop-back style, with the Rams going from first in play-action attempts last year to 17th this year. Stafford’s numbers have taken a dip in the second half this year, part of an alarming trend of McVay QB regression in the second half of the year which has now put his numbers for the year similar to those of Jared Goff in 2017 and 2018. This makes sense, as it stands to reason that a superior Quarterback running the wrong system would put up similar numbers to an inferior Quarterback running the right system. And when Stafford has been asked to drop back, the results haven’t always been pretty. There have been some stinkers, including three consecutive putrid performances against the Titans, 49ers, and Packers, three teams who should be in the playoffs this year. Even this week, the Rams needed to rely on a couple of well-timed bounces, a special teams touchdown, and the general Vikingsness of the Vikings to overcome a three-interception showing from Stafford, something they probably won’t be able to do in the playoffs. For me, the question with the Rams is less about whether they can beat anyone in the NFC- a question for which the answer should be a definitive yes. Rather, it is a question of whether Stafford can go three straight games against quality competition without losing one when running an Offense that doesn’t take advantage of his skillset- a question which I have a much harder time answering in the affirmative.

Almost Definitely Fraudulent

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals should be on their way out, and to be honest, it was generous of me to include them on this list. The biggest problem with them is the coaching- something which needs to change. Kliff Kingsbury has consistently been one of the worst in-game coaches in the NFL, something which hasn’t changed. His performance this past Saturday was one of the worst coaching performances I have seen in a long time. And while I could write an entire article on everything he did wrong in that game, let’s just leave it with the fact that he kicked a field goal on 4th and 3 but later went for it on 4th and 6 from the exact same spot on the field. On top of that, his passing scheme could be described as putrid at best. What’s ironic about Kingsbury is that he was known for the air raid in college, but his greatest contribution to the NFL has been an innovative running scheme that uses three-receiver spread sets to get his running backs in favorable one-on-one matchups with defensive backs in the open field. But when it comes to his passing game? Well, there’s not much of a scheme to speak of. They still haven’t found to get their guys open, and their passing Offense has essentially turned into asking Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins to make plays on their own, which is part of the reason Hopkins has had such a high target rate in high-leverage situations on third down and in the Red Zone. Now that Hopkins is hurt, the Cardinals are still failing to scheme their guys open, but now their receivers are all being put in harder positions. A.J. Green has left his position playing comfortably opposite Hopkins and is now once again being forced to make plays as a number one outside receiver, something which he is no longer capable of doing. Christian Kirk has had to spend less time in the slot, an area in which he thrives, and in spending more time on the outside. Rondale Moore, who had been primarily as more of a gadget player, is now being asked to consistently get open as a normal slot receiver, something which he is not yet able to do. Understandably, Kyler Murray has not thrived under this arrangement. The Hopkins injury, along with an injury to Pro Bowl center Rodney Hudson which has created an alarming snapping crisis, has severely hampered the Cardinals' Offense. A similar trend has happened on Defense since J.J. Watt got hurt, with their Defense going from number 2 in defensive DVOA at the time of the injury to the bottom half of the league in the time since.

The question for the Cardinals is when they get their guys back. As simple as it sounds, they are a team without any real schematic advantage whose strategy is essentially “let’s hope our superstars make big-time plays,” and it turns out that losing a combined 13 Pro Bowls and eight First-Team All-Pro appearances makes that strategy a lot harder to execute. The Cardinals have fallen off to the point that even if they get those guys back they probably still won’t realistically be able to come out of the NFC- but they might at least resemble the team that looked like possible Super Bowl favorites over the first half of the year.