I have a tendency to get overly excited about great sports weekends. There are at least four or five times a year in which an incredible slate of sports come up all at once, and I make a declaration that this is the best sports weekend of the year. Well, we are faced with another incredible weekend, and while I will not call it the best sports one of the year, the Divisional Round has always been my favorite NFL weekend. We’ve mostly gotten rid of the teams who just made the playoffs for the sake of it, and we are now re-introduced to the one seeds. The games are closer and the teams are better, and we could not have asked for a better slate of games this year. Every single one of these matchups is fascinating in their own right, and this is probably the weekend in which I’ve been least confident in my picks- which is a good thing because it means the football is getting really intriguing. Before I get to the picks, I would like to publicly state my regret for picking Mike McCarthy and Kliff Kingsbury last week. Mistakes were made, we learned and we moved on. Time to bounce back with these awesome Divisional matchups.
Titans (-3.5, winner) vs Bengals
What makes this game hard to predict is simply the mystery of the Titans, because we just don’t know enough about this team. The Titans are quite possibly the least deserving 1 seed in football history, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the worst. In terms of their regular-season resume, the Titans vastly over-achieved. They are not only the worst ever top-seed according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but they are the worst ever top-two seed. They are also the worst ever number one seed according to ESPN's Football Power Index, and they have the second-worst expected record based off of point-differential for any one-seed in football history, and they had a much easier schedule than the worst team, the 1985 Raiders. Their losses have been ugly- blowout losses to the Cardinals and Patriots, a game in which they continuously turned the ball over to blow a double-digit lead to the Steelers, and losses to the Jets and Texans. While they do have some impressive wins, they also have some unimpressive wins against bad teams and have benefitted from a lot of fluky mistakes by other teams, such as Josh Allen slipping on a game-deciding fourth down, Carson Wentz self-combusting near the goal line, or the Saints missing two extra points. Based on their regular-season performance this is probably the worst team the Titans have had with Ryan Tannehill- but when it comes to forecasting future playoff performance, things get a lot more complicated.
While the Titans have gotten extremely lucky in their actual games this season, it has been in the context of a world in which they have been extremely unlucky. You see, after the Ravens, they have probably been the team most affected by injuries this season, and have gone extended periods without Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones. They are now healthy and ready for the playoffs, but we simply don’t have enough information to gauge what that actually means. While the Titans have a -4.2% offensive DVOA for the entire year, that number becomes 10.7% when you just look at games with Brown and Jones. The problem is that the sample size is only eight games, not nearly enough to make a declaration of what that looks like for the playoffs. And within that sample size, there is the question of recency. A number of those games are from the beginning of the year including a Week 1 38-13 loss to the Cardinals, and when you remove that game the DVOA becomes even higher- but now we’re left with a sample size that isn’t nearly big enough to actually make any observations on what this team is going into the playoffs. My guess is that this is still probably the worst Titans team with Tannehill, but not by as much as it seems. We’ve already seen the passing game be effective in the last few weeks with Brown, and the return of Henry should provide a boost to the running game. This is probably a team that is around the quality of a three or four seed, playing at home with the advantage of the bye, against a team of similar quality .
In terms of their game against the Bengals, the matchup will come down to coaching. These are two similar teams with each having a slight advantage at important positions: Good quarterbacks (advantage Bengals), good running backs (advantage Titans), good receivers (advantage Bengals), horrible offensive lines (ew), pretty good defensive lines (advantage Titans). Based on what we know about football and the inherent value of the passing game, this should make the Bengals favorites in this game. However, there is the question of Head Coach Zac Taylor’s play calling. Over the first two-thirds of the season, the Bengals ranked 19th in first-down pass-rate despite being only 20th in Football in rush expected point added per play (Before Joe Mixon fantasy owners come at me- his numbers were largely due to volume, not efficiency). However, over the last six weeks, Taylor turned things around, going to seventh in first-down pass rate, and Joe Burrow wreaked havoc on NFL defenses. Well, in the wild card round Taylor reverted to his old ways: He ran the ball 21 out of 47 times on first and second down for a total of -4.39 expected points added, with the Bengals largely relying on Joe Burrow to bail them out on third downs. Taylor coming out with a similar game plan would be absurd. We know the Titans are going to go run-heavy with Derrick Henry (although they should also pass more) which should simply be more effective than the Bengals pounding it with Mixon- so Taylor should unleash his teams’ superiority in the passing game, and turn this into a matchup of the Bengals pass vs the Titans run. The question is whether the Bengals will actually do that.
Trying to predict this game really turns into a question of what we know vs what we don’t know. We don’t know how good the Titans are, but we know they will ride Derrick Henry. We have a better idea of what type of team the Bengals are, but have no idea whether they will actually take advantage of their superior passing game. With all of that being said, I think the Titans are the right pick. I do not have faith in Zac Taylor’s game-planning or play-calling, and I do think the Titans will be better than they’ve been. While I would prefer the line to be -3, a half-point is not going to be enough for me to change my pick for a playoff game. If the Bengals play to their advantages they should win this game. I just don’t think they will.
Niners (+5.5) @ Packers (winner):
While I do think the Packers are going to win this game, I simply think this line is a little too high. The 49ers are a really good team that matches up with the Packers really well on the offensive side of the ball. Their running game has been humming along while the Packers struggle to stop the run, and we have seen that formula work before with these two teams in the playoffs. The Niner should be able to put up some points, but they will of course have a tall task in matching points with Aaron Rodgers, which is where things get more complicated for them.
49ers Defensive Coordinator Demeco Ryans continues to work wonders with this horrible secondary and will figure to employ a similar game plan to what the Niners used in Week 3. They play short zones in the middle of the field that invites the opposing offense to throw short quick hitters to their receivers outside the numbers (paging Kellen Moore). The Niners know that they can’t actually match up with other teams but hope that by simply being extremely physical with opposing receivers turning around to run with the ball and the hits add up, they might think twice about lowering their shoulder or going for a contested catch by the time the game gets late. In that Week 3 game the Packers targeted Davante Adams 18 times, mostly on those short routes outside the numbers as seen in the route map below via Next Gen Stats. The problem for the Niners of course is that Adams thrived in that game, and he should again this week. The Niners just need to hope to continue being physical, and maybe the accumulation of hits will mean something different in near-zero-degree weather in Lambeau.
Fundamentally, I think this is a game where both teams have advantages offensively, with the Packers simply having more talent. However, the 49ers should hang around. For one, we know Kyle Shanahan has some plays and wrinkles we haven’t seen yet sitting there in the vault ready to be used in this game. We also have to factor in the Packers' Special Teams. I’ve written before about the ineptitude of Green Bay’s Special Teams unit, and things have not changed. Should they win the Super Bowl, Green Bay would have the worst Special Teams unit to ever hoist the Lombardi by a substantial margin. On top of that, they simply have a tendency to let teams hang around. They blew a 17 point lead to these very 49ers earlier in the year, needing Aaron Rodgers to bail them out for a two-point win. They’ve had a hard time putting teams away this year, and the 49ers are a team that tends to stick around. Am I actually going to pick the 49ers to win with a possibly injured Jimmy Garoppolo playing visitor to Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in a game in which wind chills should dip below zero? No. But I think the Niners keep it close and this line should probably be Packers -3.5, so I am taking the Niners +5.5 as a value pick.
Buccaneers (-2.5, winner) vs Rams:
This is a really hard game for me to pick because I am dealing with two dueling factors. On the one hand, I simply think the Buccaneers are the better team and in the long run have a much better chance at making and winning the Super Bowl. On the other hand, this is a really good matchup for the Rams. We saw last week an extreme version of the blueprint that they need to use if they are to make a run, which is to simply dominate in the trenches. The Rams have the best line play in football, and absolutely manhandled the Cardinals up front on both sides of the ball last week, and were able to dominate despite Matthew Stafford having the first game of his career in which he attempted fewer than 20 passes.
The Rams also benefited last week from Kliff Kingsbury having one of the most idiotic gameplans I have ever seen. The Rams defense is designed around having a collapsing defense with a dominant pass rush that allows short but inefficient completions and relies on their pass rush either getting home at some point or the offense making a mistake. In designing that defense there is a general assumption that the other team will respond with quick passing because long-developing deep routes would just be passing right into the coverage while giving the pass rush time to get to the Quarterback. However, Kliff Kingsbury apparently is too dumb to notice that. Kyler Murray averaged nearly 3.5 seconds before throwing, by far his longest of the year, and the Rams feasted. However, Tom Brady is no such dummy. Brady attacked an Eagles defense that plays a more vanilla version of what the Rams try to do by averaging 2.17 seconds per pass, the fastest this year in the NFL. While that worked to an extent, there are real questions about how sustainable that type of offense is considering the injuries to Tampa’s receiving core. Tom Brady is perhaps the best Quarterback in the history of the NFL at taking what the defense gives him, and is perfectly equipped to attack this Rams D. The problem is that in order to execute that type of offense you need to have impeccable timing and chemistry with your receivers. You need that type of connection where if necessary James White will simply have 14 receptions against the Falcons, or Julian Edelman will continuously run option routes with the Quarterback and Receiver needing to be on the same page. Brady doesn’t have that type of connection with Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman or Cyril Grayson, and there have been miscommunications on big third downs over the past few weeks. While the Bucs had more than enough to get by an overmatched Eagles, there are real questions about whether the Buccaneers' offense is precise enough to overcome the sheer talent on the Rams' defense.
On the other side of the ball, things simply come down to a game of willpower. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are excellent against the blitz, and Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to blitz. As long as teams send pressure, the Rams make them pay, and I have a hard time seeing Bowles having the restraint necessary to dial things back. And as I mentioned last week, there are real questions about the Buccaneers' run defense, while the Rams running game is shaping into form.
With all of that being said, I still like the Buccaneers. While both teams won convincingly last week, the games feel different in terms of repeatability. The Buccaneers game seemed almost too simple. It felt more like a 3 vs 14 matchup played at 2:40 PM in front of a half-empty stadium on the first day of March Madness rather than an NFL playoff game. It felt like the Buccaneers were almost sleepwalking or holding back- and they still were up 31-0 midway through the third quarter. As for the Rams, things went too perfectly for them. They played probably their best game of the year, and they are not going to be able to repeat that same formula, and they are going to have to throw the ball more with Stafford. While the horrible Stafford game is always looming this actually is a good matchup for him, but I still have a hard time taking him against Tom Brady. Ultimately, this is a matchup between two teams that dominated last week, except the Rams game felt too good to be true while the Buccaneers game felt like there was some meat left on the bone. And besides that, I simply think the Buccaneers are better. Give me the Buccaneers, in a really close one.
Chiefs (-1.5) vs Bills:
It’s hard to do a matchup breakdown because we all know how good these teams are. The Chiefs are the Chiefs, and the Bills are coming off of the greatest offensive performance in NFL history. We all know what these teams are both capable of, so it’s hard to analyze this matchup in the way we can other games.
It is impossible for any type of sports team to go on an extended run without developing an edge, and the Chiefs are no exception. They have been vocal over the years about taking things personally when other people tried to unseat them, or when the collective football world tried to prop a team up as the contender. This is a natural phenomenon in sports, one which isn’t just reserved for the Chiefs. It gets boring to say the same thing every year, so the sports world loves to run with the narrative that Clyde Drexler could be the true challenger to Michael Jordan, or that Steph Curry might actually be better than LeBron. This has been no different when it comes to Patrick Mahomes. Much of what I am saying comes from personal experience. There is a reason the Chiefs have always treated the games against the Ravens with a special level of intensity- it is to prove a point to everyone who tried to prop the Ravens up as Kansas City’s equal. I am old enough to remember Mahomes’ reaction when Lamar Jackson was voted number one by the players in the top 100 going into the 2020 season. When every single person on the Monday Night crew picked the Ravens before their matchup last year in which the Ravens were actually favored- well that’s all the Chiefs needed to come out and go absolutely nuclear. When there were some Allen whispers last year the Chiefs but all concerns to bed with an AFC Title Game thumping. The Chiefs are a team that when given an edge, they come out and respond in full force.
As great as Josh Allen is, I do not think he (or anyone else in the AFC) is better than Patrick Mahomes. However, that does not seem to be a universal sentiment. It doesn’t matter that Patrick Mahomes has had the greatest start to a career in NFL history- people want to root for the person at the top to come down. That’s why everyone is talking themselves into the Bills not only being a team with the potential to beat the Chiefs, which they absolutely are, but a team that is actually about to dethrone Kansas City as the standard in the AFC for the next decade. When looking through similar situations in sports history, this game fits nearly every checkmark for a superstar getting questioned and then reminding everyone that they’re the best. The Bills are an incredible team that built their roster for the specific purpose of beating the Chiefs, which they did in the regular season. Josh Allen is an otherworldly Quarterback who at times does a reasonable imitation of Patrick Mahomes. The Bills just literally pitched a perfect game offensively- and everyone believes in them. The line has moved in the Bills' favor all week, and the Chiefs only being 1.5 point favorites at home suggests that Vegas may actually think the Bills are the better team. Meanwhile, things are written almost too perfectly for the Bills. They are about to finally win a Super Bowl with Josh Allen, a Quarterback who perhaps fits his city as perfectly as any professional athlete. Their fans, a group of people that are as tortured as any in the NFL (except for the Vikings), already have the perfect road to the Super Bowl in which they exercise all demons: They beat the Patriots, a team that beat up on them for 20 years, by 30 points in the first round. They they will beat the Chiefs, the team that beat them in last year’s AFC title game and the group they’ve been trying to catch, in the second round. They will then beat the Titans in the AFC Championship game, avenging the Music City Miracle. And finally, they will beat the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, taking revenge on Tom Brady for the havoc he wreaked on their city for two decades. It seems too good to be true- which usually means that it actually is. The media is ready to crown Josh Allen and Bills fans are already planning their Super Bowl trips, while Patrick Mahomes is simply waiting to strike. As someone who roots for a superstar young Quarterback in the AFC, I firmly believe that not one of the fun group of young QBs we have will ever be better than Patrick Mahomes. And as long as we keep giving Mahomes motivation, he’s going to keep finding ways to prove people wrong. The Bills could easily win this game because they are really freaking good. But everyone seems to want to find a reason to unseat Patrick Mahomes. I am not going to make that mistake.
Comments