Answering Burning College Football Questions, Plus Week 13 Picks

We have perhaps more uncertainty entering Conference Championship Weekend than we ever have in the College Football Playoff Era. Oklahoma, Clemson, and Ohio St are all out of the picture, we have a mid-major with an actual chance and we might have out first ever two-loss team in the playoff- and it might not even be a conference champion. With all of that going on, I'm here to answer any burning question you (me) may have going into the final weekend.

1.Who controls their own destiny?

This is a complicated question because we have no precedent for the current situation with Cincinnati. But before we do that, let’s establish what we do know. First off, Georgia is in no matter what. I’m not sure there is any human or computer that would disagree with the fact that Georgia has been the best team all year, and there is no universe in which they fall from the one spot to out of the playoff. Beyond that, Alabama and Michigan certainly control their destiny. Both teams have certainly put themselves in a position where if they win, they will be in. But while all of that is obvious, the million-dollar question is whether Cincinnati controls their own destiny. Common logic says yes- there is zero past precedent of a top-four team winning their Conference Championship Game and then being moved out of the final four rankings. The problem is that every previous top-four team at this point has been a major conference team. The committee has consistently shafted teams like Cincinnati, but given the chaos of this year they have been left no choice but to put them in the top-four for now. The question is whether the committee has saved the best for last, and would consider putting in Oklahoma St if both them and Cincinnati were to win. While they shouldn’t, I could completely see the committee saying that Oklahoma St finishing off with back-to-back top-10 wins and a Conference Title would be enough to leapfrog the Bearcats, regardless of the fact that Houston, Cincy’s opponent in the AAC Championship Game, is no slouch themselves. So while Cincinnati should control their own destiny, I can’t shake this nagging feeling that they might actually not.

2. Which Top-Four Teams Can Lose and Get in?

Like previously mentioned, Georgia should be in no matter what. On the other end of the spectrum, unless chaos reigns everywhere, it is hard to see a scenario where Cincinnati gets in with a loss. When it comes to Michigan and Alabama, the question gets more complicated. While Michigan is ranked ahead of them, my guess is that Alabama has the best chance of the other teams to get in even with a loss. My guess is that the committee penalizes Michigan for a loss to Iowa more than they do Alabama for a loss to Georgia, and probably rightfully so. If that’s the case, we’re going to have to suffer through a new round of conspiracy theories about the committee favoring Alabama before the Playoff starts only for them to win the title, as happened in 2017.

3. What is the unlikeliest team that still could have a path?

While no one can fully answer this question because we are not in the committee room and don’t know who would earn tiebreakers under certain scenarios, but the answer for the unlikeliest team to enter the debate is the Iowa Hawkeyes. It would be extremely unlikely considering we have no evidence for a team jumping nine spots in the last weekend, but what they would need is absolute chaos. First off, they themselves would of course need to beat Michigan. Then they would need Cincinnati, Alabama, and Oklahoma St to all lose. This would leave them in competition with the four aforementioned teams as well as Baylor, Ohio St, and Notre Dame for three spots. While we have no idea how the committee would operate under this scenario, there is a possibility that beating Michigan and winning a conference championship could allow them to vault the teams that didn’t play or lost. Is it likely? No. But it’s possible.

4. OK, Josh, that was a little far-fetched. What’s the most realistic/most fun scenario creating absolute chaos?

In recent years, we’ve been used to the powers getting in without any trouble. If we want chaos, we usually have to hope that there’s a conference with an unlikely champion who makes their way up such as when Washington and Penn St fought for the last spot in 2016 (I still think Penn St got robbed). If we want chaos, the most fun outcome is some combination of a fight between Michigan, Alabama, and Notre Dame. It honestly doesn’t matter if it’s for one or two spots because either way, the reactions among the fan bases would be incredible. Under this scenario, Georgia and Iowa both have to win. We’re also saying Cincinnati has to win because while it’s not a direct requirement for the three of them to be in a fight, we’re looking for fun and Cincinnati is fun. It doesn’t really matter whether Baylor or Oklahoma St wins, because we’re hoping for a scenario where all of them will be above Baylor no matter what, and the three teams fighting for one spot would be just as fun as them fighting for two. A slight addendum to this scenario is Michigan and Baylor win, and we wind up with Alabama and Notre Dame in a head-to-head fight for the last spot. If you’re saying that you wouldn't enjoy the fallout from that scenario, you’re lying.

5. Am I a bad person for secretly hoping Notre Dame gets in and goes on a “Fuck you Brian Kelly” tour?

No, and I know I am not the only one. The fact of the matter is that any disdain that the College Football community has towards Notre Dame comes more towards their fanbase and the way the media continuously overrates them. But somehow, Brian Kelly is such a bad person that he’s turned them into a sympathetic story. Seriously, the guy took a job at LSU, let his team find out on Social Media before informing them via group message, and called a meeting at 7 FREAKING AM to talk to them for less than five minutes before leaving. And that’s before we mention the fake southern accent, which is honestly one of the funnier college sports moments in recent memory. That’s a lot for those kids to handle, and you truly have to feel bad for a group that’s going through that after having a very good season. When you add in the awesome videos both of Offensive Coordinator Tommy Reese telling the team he’s staying, and the team reacting to new Coach Marcus Freeman addressing them for the first time at their Head Coach, it’s hard not to root for them. Somehow, Brian Kelly has turned Notre Dame into a plucky underdog and feel-good story that would be legitimately fun to root for. Don’t ask me how that happened.

6. Is this a point where I use this column as an excuse to bring up the fact that Georgia and Alabama exclusively play All-Time Postseason Games?

No, we’re not there yet. This is where I mention that Michigan is coached by the inferior Harbaugh.

7. What about now?

Yeah fine. While many remember the classic 2017 National Championship Game when Tua came off the bench to relieve Jalen Hurts to lead a comeback, as well as the 2018 SEC Title game in which Jalen Hurts came off the bench to relieve Tua and lead a 14-point comeback. Those two have made many forget the greatest SEC Championship Game ever played. The 2012 game was a 2 vs 3 matchup between the two team to determine who would play in the national championship game. This was a back-and-forth game that featured two dominant rushing performances from Todd Gurley and Eddie Lacy, a blocked field goal for a touchdown, a game-winning touchdown from Amari Cooper, and one of the more baffling endings you’ll ever see. This game had it all, and in a decade of great College Football is somehow becoming a forgotten classic, despite being one of the ten best College Football games of the decade. The full list:

10- Auburn 28 Alabama 27- 2010 (The Camback)

9- Alabama 35 Georgia 28- 2018 SEC Title Game

8- USC 52 Penn ST 49- 2017 Rose Bowl

7- Ohio St 30 Michigan 27 (2 OT)- 2016

6- Alabama 32 Georgia 28- 2012 SEC Title Game

5- Florida St 34 Auburn 31- 2013 BCS National Championship Game

4- Alabama 26 Georgia 23 (OT)- 2018 National Championship Game

3- Georgia 54 Oklahoma 48 (2OT)- 2018 Rose Bowl/CFP Semifinal

2- Clemson 35 Alabama 31- 2017 National Championship Game

1- Auburn 34 Alabama 28- 2013 (The Kick Six)

______________________________________________________________________

Week 13 picks

Last Week’s Record: 7-9 (0-1 locks)

Season Record: 95-98-1

*Lines as of Thursday Afternoon

Cowboys (-6, lock) @ Saints

Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Falcons

Cardinals (-7.5) @ Bears

Chargers (+3) @ Bengals

Vikings (-7.5) @ Lions

Giants (+6) @ Dolphins

Eagles (-7) @ Jets

Colts (-10) @ Texans

Raiders (-1) vs WFT

Rams (-13) vs Jaguars

Seahawks (+3.5) vs 49ers

Steelers (+4.5) vs Ravens

Broncos (+9.5) @ Chiefs

Patriots (+2.5) @ Bills